2018 uk politics thread (rolling)

cathal brugha is cancelled. sorry you had to find out this way

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They’re just done now, aren’t they? Likely can’t actually afford another leadership contest, councillors facing re-election in may are gonna continue jumping ship, the membership that’s left is probably going to elect a proper far right leader…

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Particularly as JRM will 100% be the next Tory leader.

I agree you’re likely to be correct… personally i’m 99% on it

(also polls are quite interesting in massive threads like this cos it shows the regulars how many people are actually following the discussion)

  • 100% JRM
  • 99% JRM
  • Boris
  • someone else

0 voters

anyone voting Boris, why do you think the party will let him? cos they think he’ll be able to win an election and JRM won’t?

just had a look at bet365, they have JRM at 7/2 and Boris at 15/2, so there’s some £££ to made whoever’s right

Yes, I think maybe the PCP will ‘hold their noses’ and vote for Boris as they will prefer him to JRM

Was always told the Tory party is an ‘election-winning machine’. Power is what they covet most and will pursue the path likeliest to bring them that

having backed JRM in the poll I made I’m now thinking you may well be absolutely right

ultimately we know that the tory party don’t wanna have another leadership election for now and therefore anything could happen

15/2 for Boris seems like amazing value tho!

I always thought the Tory membership and MPs were incapable of electing Corbyn, should he be a candidate in an alternate universe.

It’s too much of an uncertainty and too much introspection. My opinion is that the Party is extremely pragmatic

I’ve always held that pure, no-frills, nostalgic fascism is the only way the Tories could go from here, and Big J is the absolute avatar of that.

That polite, fair-play, upper class, knows-best public school boy image has the exact same base appeal to the British electorate as Trump did to heartland America. Monthly reminder that UKIP won about 25% of the overall vote as little as 3 years ago. With the total collapse of that party, those votes are simply waiting to be mopped up by someone.

He has all of the same qualities Corbyn has - old school, principled - plus the frothing, murderous support of the Tory press. You can point out all the ways he’s a hypocrite and a piece of shit, it only strengthens his image as a liberal-baiting maverick. I reckon the Tory membership will be able to twig this on an intrinsic level (if he doesn’t just appeal to them over any other candidate anyway).

Against this you have Johnson, and maybe somebody like Rudd or Gove? Johnson doesn’t want it. Could’ve had it directly after the Brexit vote, chose to hide under a cushion, has been made to do look like the fucking idiot he is ever since. The rest of them have mounds of baggage. Imagine Gove vs. Mogg, fucking hell. Even I’d vote for the latter.

Corbyn vs. JRM, I’d back the latter to win. Rationality no longer matters, and I have no confidence in this country whatsoever.

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A compelling argument and plausible.

I guess another much-cited factor is whether JRM wants to be leader. Plenty of sound bites on the record to say he doesn’t; he’ll lose his outsider status, which, unlike Trump, I can see him wanting to perpetuate.

He’s difficult to read as his demeanour does suggest he is happy with his lot, unlike Johnson.

They already have been, haven’t they? Hence one reason why Labour aren’t streets ahead in the polls, all the UKIP lot are now back in the Tory camp.

Anyway, I have no idea if Rees-Mogg would beat Corbyn in an election or not, but I don’t think he’s necessarily an invincible candidate either. Everyone was saying how Theresa May was that invincible candidate before last June (not to mention Cameron before the referendum). Labour’s leader and approach are what we should be focused on anyway. Which is my way of saying ‘please no bloody immigration monoliths ever again’

For my money, he would “reluctantly” put his name forward at the behest of his fellow MPs, whilst relishing the opportunity. The only thing I think that would stop him is if it was clear early on that he wouldn’t stand a hope in hell of making it to the members ballot. Similarly, I think Johnson has alienated too many people to be given a shot at least in the medium turn and I doubt he’ll give it a shot unless he’s near certain he’ll make it through; his ego wouldn’t stand another brutalising like last time.

In terms of voting intention Farage is still the man to keep an eye on. If the Tories don’t go hard Brexit and he comes back to frontline politics as a result, that’ll be the grenade that moves the voting intention polls again.

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But we can still have mugs?

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genuinely can’t call it, tbh.

omg so allowing a maximum charge of £9k resulted in everyone charging the maximum and didn’t bring in a fully functional market with different pricing structures? what a fucking surprise that was it’s not like we all predicted it

Is this their solution to the thinking that Labour’s boost in the GE was down to the no tuition fees promise?

Yes. It’s hilarious watching them being all serious about making the system even worse but actually thinking it’s an improvement :slight_smile:

Very depressing seeing Brexiteers continue to put Brexit ideology ahead of peace in NI.

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/965300247428784129

Really very irresponsible to start declaring the Good Friday Agreement has failed because it’s getting in the way of your wet dream.

Power sharing may have broken down for now but that’s merely one aspect of the treaty - the rest of it is working pretty well (until they inevitably fuck the border over).

Also pretty ironic that to try and disregard the GFA is to ignore the result of a democratic referendum.

It looks like this is part of a concerted effort within the Tory party and the press to shift the Overton window regarding the Good Friday Agreement. Owen Paterson (former NI Secretary) was endorsing this column the other day, too:

https://twitter.com/OwenPaterson/status/964531995421368321

Jesus Christ. And Gove has been against it since the 90s.

A handy reminder that ‘will of the people’ means ‘will of the English’.

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