#3570

If by any chance it does go ahead, though, everything would hinge upon the format. McDonnell seemed to be hinting at a multi-option referendum, which presumably would include the May deal, remaining in the EU, and no-deal. But how would a three-option vote actually work? Nobody would ever seriously contemplate a first-past-the-post rule, because that would be like settling the constitutional future of the UK on a lottery (although of course that does beg the question of why we routinely choose governments that way). A bit more plausible would be a preferential voting system or a French-style run-off, which I suspect would be Remain’s best realistic hope. But my guess is that we might instead end up with a two question format - the first question would ask whether the May deal should be approved, and the second question would give a straight choice between no-deal and Remain if the answer to the first question is “No”. (The result on the second question would be voided if there was a majority ‘Yes’ on the first question.)

If you think it through, the dice would be loaded in favour of Brexit on that format. There would be extensive polling on both questions, and if the second question polling showed a clear majority for Remain (as you’d intuitively expect it to), Brexiteers would have every incentive to make a tactical switch in favour of campaigning for a Yes vote on the question about the May deal. With government, media, and Brexiteer support, the deal would in all likelihood be approved, and Britain would leave the EU as a result.

Incidentally, it’s impossible to know whether there is already a natural majority in favour of the May deal without that sort of tactical switch. A Survation poll the other day showed a narrow majority in favour of the deal for the first time, but a new YouGov poll conducted at roughly the same time continues to show a massive majority against. That sort of difference can’t be explained by the standard margin of error - either one firm is getting it completely wrong, or they both are.

In short, chaos reigns. The fact that we’re so in the dark about what this PeOpLe’S vOtE would actually be a vote on, and how it would be structured/presented undermines the notion that it would offer any kind of closure.

#3571

There needs to be another referendum and it needs to be Remain Vs. No Deal. As far as I can see that’s the only way any of this is going to be resolved, and it probably will happen simply because enough noise is being made about it (which is exactly why the first referendum happened).

Personally I’m so fed up with this fucking crap I just want all of it to go away.

#3572

Weirdly this still feels like the best stance for them. Look at the Scotland referendum where they decided to pick a side and it fucked them completely. It was stupid then as well: let the government pick a side but Labour should have taken a position of something like “whether or not Scotland voted Yes or No for independence, Scottish Labour was there for working class Scots” and let it run.

I don’t think this stance will exactly work for Labour because no doubt whatever happens next most of the press will be trying to pin blame on them*. Labour are also ‘lucky’ to have Corbyn in charge right now who is a real lightning rod for party criticism meaning that when he is removed they will hope to be able to avoid the blame game even more…

(*I don’t consider them blameless per se but I think all of this is really at the feet of the Tories who called the referendum and then did nothing to mitigate the damage of the result. Claiming Corbyn should have done more in the Remain campaign fails to recognise it wasn’t the Labour party calling for this referendum so if the Tories ran it on the basis they would get full cross-party support it’s still fundamentally them who is at fault.)

1 Like
#3573

We’ve got years of this to go, unfortunately.

1 Like
#3574

Anecdotal but I know people who voted Leave who are as bored with this as I am and don’t care anymore. I think most people whatever their persuasion are just sick of it.

Even I will admit, Theresa May’s Brexit sounds less appealing than actual Brexit, because as idiotic as I’m aware this argument sounds, at least with Brexit we can form new trade deals (eventually) - or basically reach the same benefits we already have by forming different deals (but can we? I don’t know, I haven’t got an Economics qualification) - yeah, different; not better than what we’ve already got, which renders the whole thing fucking pointless - what a bunch of good for nothing thickos the people of this country are. The figures from the Bank of England only tell you what No Deal will look like assuming we carry on without new deals tbf (which probably sounds very moker). Bizarre how I’ve come to adopting this stance but there we go, in the same way that Brexiteers are now saying that remaining in the EU is better than Theresa May’s Brexit.

Tl:dr - a small part of me doesn’t mind anymore if Brexit is just done and dusted so we can rid ourselves the mental illness of just thinking about it if nothing else.

1 Like
#3575

glad you posted this tbh, i’ve felt more than over it for the last few months, just sick to death tbh

2 Likes
#3576

Guys…

May Deal, no deal or Remain …Brexit is never, EVER, going away

3 Likes
#3577

Don’t be so pessimistic. This is probably just a relatively minor strand in the overall build up to a huge world war which will obliterate all western institutions and lead to the necessary formation of a post-Brexit, post-EU even, possibly even post-civilization society.

11 Likes
#3578

well, if Nationalism is to be defeated once and for all then …

#3579

there won’t be a world war.

#3580

Well not with that attitude!

27 Likes
#3581

Don’t listen to him, 'lossal. If you want a world war, we’ll have a world war.

4 Likes
#3582

Thanks s’punky. Really appreciate your support on this.

1 Like
#3583

Idea for a film: the public across the globe try to have a secret world war without any politicians noticing.

6 Likes
#3584

Must not, repeat, must not turn into actual collapse of society.

2 Likes
#3585

Yeah it’ll intergalactic, a Star War, if you will.

3 Likes
#3586

i could envision lots of dirty little wars in happening in western countries at some point in the next 20-40 years, like what is happening in france/spain/USA feels like a prelude in many ways. where the line between rioting and urban insurgency becomes blurred. bombings, assassinations, etc. and maybe more traditional proxy wars between powers happening elsewhere, like in syria atm. but i think full on stalingrad style wars are pretty much finished now, what with nukes and all.

it feels like brexit and trump have made us all very fatalistic, which is understandable but bad. we need good energy guys, come on.

#3587

Vote Yes. #indyref2

3 Likes
#3588

Why don’t we have a two-stage ballot: first, leave or remain; then, if the result of that one is leave, May’s deal, no deal or…something else?

#3589

I mean if there’s a 2nd referendum of course I’m going to vote Remain. It’s actually the fact there’s a small sliver of hope that Brexit won’t happen which is killing me (which I suspected was always inevitably going to be the case anyway, because it’s too difficult to implement and get any consensus on how we Brexit). If we definitely know over the next few months/year Remain can’t happen then yeah… Brexit just needs to be got over with so at least we can move on.

Currently we don’t know and that’s we these are such frustrating, mentally exhausting times.