Autumn Brexit Thread - The Yellowing

This.

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So Peston is saying this:

According to senior Labour sources, Corbyn is close to agreeing that shortly (days) after the loss of the meaningful vote by May, he would formally make his party the champion of another referendum or people’s vote - on the basis that if there is no consensus in parliament on what comes next, the question has to go back to the people.

At this conjuncture, there might well be a clear parliamentary majority for such a referendum - with the choice between May’s deal (as the only negotiated deal) and remaining in the EU - if the Tory MPs who currently say they back a plebiscite stick to their guns.

Which is why, if May sees this coming (which presumably she must), she may try to head it off at the pass by saying shortly after losing the vote that she remains committed to Brexit and will in effect lead a government of national unity to capture the will of parliament on what kind of Brexit is sought by most MPs.

So is this likely? I don’t know about the national unity government stuff, but the potential Labour response there seems about the most sensible option, realistically (obviously cancelling the whole thing is more sensible, but nobody’s going to launch themselves onto that grenade).

But the eu say they’re not going to renegotiate so what would the National Unity Government achieve

I really hope so. I’ve been behind Corbyn’s position on Brexit because I’ve been assuming the plan is to stick with the will of the people stuff so as to not look undemocratic for as long as necessary and switch to supporting a second referendum when the moment is right. And if the moment isn’t right after the deal fails to pass the house then it never will be, and I’ll be pretty livid.

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I really hope this is true, just to watch the #fbpe crowd’s brains just fucking explode

I mean and like 10% for the good of the country and so forth

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I don’t think Corbyn needs to argue for anything in the debate - he just needs to say why the deal fails on all terms - those set by the Labour party and those set by the government. He could say what Labour would prioritise if they were renegotiating, but he can legitimately say that at the moment, he has no obligation to spell this out.

The debate is proposed between the advocate of the deal (May) and the opposition to it (Corbyn). At the moment, Remain isn’t even on the table, so picking a representative from the ‘People’s Vote’ campaign (unpopular Vince wants to do it! anti-immigration Femi_Sorry? Dodgy dossier writer Alistair Campbell?) is pointless - as Theo noted above, that would be a weirdly asymmetrical match up where one participant is representing an elected political party and the other is representing a campaign group.

May will not debate Corbyn on this - it won’t help her convince her MPs, it won’t bring any more newspapers onside, and if Corbyn sticks to his position, she’ll also alienate the Labour MPs she’ll need to push the deal through the commons.

It’ll get called off because they’ll place deliberately onerous conditions on it.

If it does go ahead, the reason Amber Rudd has been called back to government will become clear

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Fair play for answering the question. No-one else seems particularly willing to havea shot .

That would look wishy washy as fuck.

He’s the leader of the opposition, sure. But to say he’s the leader of the opposition to the deal is a biiig stretch.

I’m not asking for a rep from that abysmally-named campaign.

I doubt have your certainty on this at all. In being given an opportunity to sell it to an audience outside parliament, I think she stands a chance of winning over the media and for that to exert pressure on the MPs she needs to win over.

Now we’re getting somewhere. Is that your call? That May will get approval of this deal (out an amended version of it) because of Labour MPs?

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I had assumed that Corbyn was going to respond to the wishes of his membership who voted almost unanimously on a referendum on the final deal based on the response from the LPC

I assume the debate is just going to be him setting out how May’s deal fails Labour’s six tests, advocating MPs vote down the deal and followed by a call for a general election.

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This has kind of been my hope as well - I think if/when May’s deal is voted down and it’s made clear that a no confidence vote in May won’t pass, it’s the logical position to take - you won’t get a Labour Brexit, nor will the EU negotiate terms, so going back to the public makes sense.

Corbyn’s position might be portrayed as wishy washy in the commentariat and on twitter amongst QCs living in windmills, but I don’t think that it would matter amongst members of the public who are undecided still, after all this time.

Unless you’re bypassing parliament, then Corbyn is the leader of the largest party who are making the case against the deal and who will form the vast majority of those voting against it in parliament. He, and the Labour party have earned that right. No one else has. At this stage, remain isn’t even an option open to being voted on, so its inclusion in a debate is an unnecessary diversion from interrogating the proposed deal. The inclusion of, say, Tony Blair, would end up totally derailing any meaningful discussion that might occur (not that I expect any to happen - May’s performance in parliament yesterday shows how she’d avoid answering any question).

As discussed upthread, I think most, if not all Tory MPs will fall in line anyway. But it won’t be because of any debate that happens. It’s the DUP who will decide it, and on this, Labour and the DUP have out-maneuvered May and are making similar arguments against the deal. This means that May needs to appeal to Labour MPs (hence the disastrous briefing given to them by her chief of staff/deputy last night), and that will fail if she attacks Corbyn from a leave position and will also fail if she attacks him from a Tory position.

Again, as I say upthread, I can’t see more than half a dozen Labour MPs voting for her deal - it suits the anti-Corbyn lot to vote it down as well at this point.

May doesn’t have the numbers to get it through at the first attempt at the moment, and I don’t think she will when if finally goes to parliament either.

When is the vote?

23 June 2016. You lost, GET OVER IT!

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WILLOV THE PEEPUL!!!

So. Regardless of the finer points of the debate along the way, or the specifics of the numbers of Labour and Tory MPs switching sides in the vote (s), neither of us think that May’s deal will pass. Cool. That’s as much as I can hope for at that stage.

What next? What do you think May will do, and what do you think Corbyn will do in response?

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1067101068759306243

Made my own heavy-handed satire

willothepeople

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poor mavis. What’s she done to be compared to Boris???

Yeah Johnson’s clearly the Moog.

FBPE lot:

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