Brexit Thread IV - Negotiations begin (and we're all screwed)


#541

Red white and blue stability


#542

i wrote this when shitfaced

i was trying to say that lots of people don’t engage with politics on a deep level

like that guy who was on a phone in with James O’Brien and was unable to name a single EU rule that he wanted to change, or that woman who got upset at david cameron for cutting her benefits despite the fact that very little research was necessary to know that that was what he was going to be doing

see people all the time in comments sections saying no deal will be fine, despite the fact that you really don’t need to do very much research to realise that the country could literally grind to a halt if it happens

people form strong opinions with very little knowledge, that’s the case across all kinds of things like sports, i can give you strong opinions on football players who i realistically know fuck all about

politics is no different for many people, they don’t see it as life and death whereas maybe they should do

democracy is still least bad form of government tho

basically i still don’t really know what i’m blathering on about


#543

Massive confirmation bias too. People who believe the UK is the best country in the world hear dickheads like Redwood proclaiming no deal is fine and we should walk away…and that is their entire outlook confirmed.


#544

Thought this was an interesting read (particularly the bottom half).

Working classes are already changing their minds about Brexit, more rapidly than middle classes (whose views haven’t changed).


#545

Ian Dunt (who is excellent on the practicalities of what’s happening and where we’re going btw if you don’t follow him) said that hard Brexit/no deal Brexit is like a religious fervour for those who subscribe to it - a a belief system that is totally detached from the facts but cannot be changed regardless of how much evidence there is that it will be a disaster.

I try and engage with those people I know who want this, but I cannot countenance how blinded they are to the reality. I know people who are livid at the idea of ANY sort of transition period as it would be against the will of the people and is being done exclusively to stop Brexit, as opposed to the idea that it might take fucking ages to sort this all out to a level that doesn’t fuck the country totally in the arse, so might be sensible. You can wheel out as much evidence as you want, as many people in different fields talking about the practicalities of what we’re doing, but they’d rather listen to Farage popping up on Sky News saying that if we don’t cut all ties with the EU by march 2019 it’s a disgrace and democracy has been undermined. It’s all very tiring and I wish it’d all stop.


#546

Yep, it’s very true that brexit is like a religious cult and it’d be like trying to convince the pope to become an atheist to get them to agree that brexit will be a disaster and nothing to do with democracy. Which of course makes it very hard to fight against.


#547

We seem to live in a world now where facts don’t mean anything to everyone. You can cherry pick whatever facts you want to substantiate a belief and in turn this reinforces your values, outlook on life, lifestyle choices etc.


#548

Was there ever a time when facts did reign supreme?


#549

I think it’s always been this way, but it’s far more apparent when you divide people into two extremely polarised positions (Leave/Remain, May/Corbyn) compared to when Tony Blair was PM and most people voted Labour. Maybe the Thatcher years were similar to Brexit, having grown up through Blair/Brown and a socially liberal Tory government we’re just not used to it.


#550

I don’t know, but when the internet became mainstream in the early 2000s, as a primary school kid who can remember the internet being introduced in schools, to me that felt like some sort of ‘information revolution’, where facts/information was valued (and society seemed to be much less divided), worlds away from the post-truth climate we live in now.

Maybe this ‘facts don’t matter’, politically divided climate we’re living in now is actually similar to what life what like before the internet? It’s just that none of us can remember. This probably doesn’t make sense, but I mean throughout most of the 20th Century, this has always been a very divided country politically. In past elections, the vast majority of the electorate (as much as 90%) either voted Labour or Conservative (traditionally being much more distinctive from each other compared to Blair/Brown/Miliband/Cameron etc.), and we seem to have returned to that entrenched two-party division, where both sides are very different, and sticking to party allegiances is more important to people than listening to facts (and Leave/Remain is a very ugly form of this). Maybe what we’re observing is nothing new, it just hasn’t happened for a long time.


#551

A deal will be struck. The whole ‘no deal’ being banded about by hard-line Brexiteers and the right-wing press is nothing more than hyperbole. Although any deal struck will inevitably be inferior to the one the UK currently has.

Cameron was right. Why be on outside looking in, having no influence when forming rules and regulations, yet still having to abide by them, when instead you can be on the inside, influencing the outcome of those rules and regulations?

I go to Switzerland quite frequently and, even though they’re not an EU member state, they’re an EU member state in all but name, and that’s what I think will happen to the UK. Switzerland, through agreements with the EEA, trade within the single market, meaning they have to abide by the four main freedoms, including free movement of people, and they are liable to the jurisdiction of the ECJ (European Court of Justice). Although they can strike independent trade deals through not being part of the Customs Union.

This is a deal that is highly probable, but will do nothing to appease either side of the debate.


#552

Switzerland and the EU currently settle disputes through a joint commission, not the ECJ.

Switzerland relies on a patchwork of more than 100 bilateral agreements that ease access to the EU single market. For the last 3 years, the Swiss have been discussing a new treaty with the EU that could clear the way for closer ties in fields including financial services and power markets. The EU is pushing for this new treaty to fall under the jurisdiction of the ECJ, but Switzerland is refusing to give in on that particular issue and negotiations have reached stalemate.


#553

Ah, I misunderstood the current jurisdiction of the ECJ. My argument still holds, though, that Switzerland, although not an EU member state, still has to adhere to EU rules and regulations, especially that of free movement of people. Back in 2014 the Swiss voted to limit free movement of people but the EU has stated the requirements of the bilateral treaties that allows Switzerland to trade with the single market.

I think that is what will happen in the case of the UK. It will no longer be an EU member state but will still have to adhere to the same rules and regulations as before if it wants continued access to the single market.

It will ultimately appease neither side of the debate.


#554

I’d like to think this but with the right wing press holding the governments nose to the grindstone I can easily see headlines being plastered everywhere saying that May bottled it, rather than she didn’t want to sacrifice the country’s economic future on the bonfire of nationalism.


#555

He’s not wrong


#556

he doesn’t know us at all!!!


#557

Maybe not wrong, but certainly a bit oblivious:

it is really hard to understand why a country that was doing so well wanted to ruin it


#558

I saw him yesterday, doing a photoshoot with Sadiq outside the new Bloomberg office by Cannon St.

All the restaurants in the complex were giving out freebies so I got a slice of free breakfast pizza. Take that, Brexit!


#559

I mean, the reason is at least partly because, while the country is doing fine in terms of GDP, your average person isn’t doing that well out of it and inequality is through the roof. Ultimately bankers being richer doesn’t mean anything if wages are stagnating and prices and rent are inflating. Suddenly it doesn’t feel to people that they’re doing so well. Even though it can, and surely will, get much worse thanks to Brexit


#560

There are some nice, if rather corporate, places in that new block: