Brexit Thread IV - Negotiations begin (and we're all screwed)


#681

They may well continue to chip away at the UK’s tech sector as well. Even before Brexit I’ve been asked to relocate to Dublin by a couple of companies.


#682

Yeah, I have a friend who is a FinTech journalist who splits his time between London and Dublin and the number of firms already relocating is large.

If the government push through with their back-door anti-encryption stuff it’ll only accelerate.


#683

This’ll be fine right? The government is pretty good at setting up new systems quickly and efficiently isn’t it.

ffs the reply edit button disappears with the preview http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/public-accounts-committee/news-parliament-2017/brexit-future-customs-report-published-17-19/


#684

thing is THAT to me is laughable. This is a government that i’m 99% sure doesn’t even understand what a proxy is.


#685

while this is undoubtedly true I’d imagine that the first and most significant trade deal a post-brexit Britain could & should do would be with the RoI - the land border makes that inevitable & I can see the Republic having the whip hand to some extent

Also I think you’re perhaps underestimating just how much of the financial, tech & other sectors (pharma?) would move. The EU rules & regulations for trade are fixed, transparent, stable & continuous whereas the UK (especially with May at the helm) is an absolutely unknown quantity flailing around in the dark. The only real tool at May’s disposal is cutting corporation tax and is there really that much room to maneuver? Could see GSK moving their global headquarters from London to RoI (as there has been talk here of AstraZeneca withdrawing their HQ from Cambridge and relocating back to Sweden)

Obviously with large multinationals they’re flexible and somewhat amorphous but the negative significance to the UK economy vs the positive significance to Ireland of suddenly becoming the prime English-speaking entity within the EU is one that I don’t think should be underestimated in any sector


#686

I may have misunderstood, but isn’t the point that we can’t do trade deals with individual EU countries (that’s part of the reason given in favour of Brexit - we can’t have bespoke deals with say India that other EU countries don’t agree to).


#687

Michael Bloomberg was farting off on the radio this morning about how London will remain the financial capital of Europe because we speak English here. I guess he finds the Irish accent a bit tricky. Plus we have “culture” here, and there’s nothing bankers like more than a bit of culture.

In short: everything’s fine, relax.


#688

yes, in theory

but I think the status of NI & the border issue will mean some kind of trade halfway house here

I mean, it’s either going to have to be that or a unified Ireland …and then we’re possibly on to the originally mooted civil war narrative


#689

No, because individual EU members cannot negotiate their own trade deals.

I think the gist of what you’re saying about relocation is correct, but that it’ll take half a decade for it to really kick in. In the meantime the RoI’s economy could be tanked by the UK’s actions.


#690

Pharma has already been moving over there a lot and think it’ll continue to do so. I really see my future over there, or commuting, which would be filth.


#691

the trade thing - see above, it’s deeply embedded in the border issue

as for the time lag in relocation - I think you may be right. I’m gonna guess though that Ireland might get a chunk of EU money in recognition of the post-brexit economic re-configuration


#692

Pharma eh? Welcome to beautiful Ringaskiddy!


#693

I can’t believe that this was put up by the sun. Fuck me, it’s plain wrong in at least one place, and the disregard for people in NI is just fucked. Felt the need to get that off my chest


#694

suddenly wondering about any possible shift in Loyalist strength what with the likely reality that Old Liz may be replaced at any minute by Charles’ transformation into King George VII or King Kate & Queen William or whatever


#695

would quite like to do an exit TV interview at the airport when I leave the country next month.

“30% of dickheads leaving the UK because of Brexit”


#696

Will British medical professionals really want to move though? The reason the Irish ones all leave is the pay is abysmal


#697

I don’t think they, or anyone, will really care so much about that short of Charles registering as a member of the Real IRA


#698

maybe not

but it’s interesting timing nonetheless for the longest ever reigning monarch to be coming to the end of her reign at roughly the same time as Brexit - especially given its significance in Scotland & NI/RoI

There’s hardly a person alive under the age of 70 for whom Monarchy in the UK means anything other than Queen Elizabeth II

I’d fully expect a tide of Republicanism or at the very least a serious downgrading of the status of the Royal Family when she passes (if she hasn’t already !)


#699

The big companies with sweetheart deals cannot move to Ireland without changing their tax status though.
Apparently there’s no apple stores in Ireland due to this


#700

isn’t it more due to cost of living differences, than wage differences? My understanding is that the pay is broadly similar but Ireland is expensive to live in.

Plus a medical professional’s decision to relocate isn’t purely down to wages.