Brexit Thread V - Only the Best Trade Deals


#721

seems fucking obvious to me now but i hadn’t realised that if we were out of the single market but in the customs union there would not be a frictionless border

which surely means that being in the customs union AND single market is required under the good friday agreement?

there’s absolutely no way we we can have any kind of border in NI, so there is absolutely no scenario where we can leave the single market

right?


#722

I think you’re overestimating the Tory party’s feelings over what works for Ireland and NI.


#723

so you reckon the EU and Ireland will just sit there and watch as border controls appear?

seperate thing that I’m sure has been discussed here before but I’d forgotten, if abortion is still outlawed in NI we could have women travelling from NI to have an abortion while women travel the other way to give birth (so the child becomes entitled to an Irish passport)


#724

I think it’s going to be an almighty mess and it could end up being one of the things that causes Brexit to collapse before the year is out. Ultimately, the EU and Ireland can’t force us to stay in the Customs Union or Single Market, however, I don’t think the Tories have the votes in the House of Commons to get any form of Brexit agreed because of the Good Friday agreement.


#725

is there nothing at all they could do?


#726

Well, they could give up free movement, but that seems extremely unlikely to me, plus there’d still be a route into the UK via Ireland, which strikes me would be a sticking point for the Rhys-Moggs of the Tories. Only other option I can see is an internal mainland/NI border, which the DUP would kill any deal over.

As I say, it seems like a huge mess to me.


#727

#728

I suppose the abundance of reporting and social media will make it easier for people in the future to see exactly how idiotic all of this actually was.


#729

I hope that the day comes when history chastises us for giving the likes of Mogg and Johnson the time of day.


#730

Good grief


#731

So I’m guessing this means no deal is back on the table in 2020 or whenever the transitional arrangement ends?


#732

Isn’t the Tory mantra that transitional arrangements only apply if we get a deal; if we don’t get one, we’ll crash out next year.


#733

I’m actually not sure what ‘a deal’ involves. At this point it seems like the UK Gov wants to keep the existing arrangements in place for up to a year after Brexit as per the existing EU Withdrawal Bill

Presumably, between now and 2020 they’ll have worked out exactly what sort of relationship we’ll have with the EU after Brexit, and these recent developments suggest it won’t involve the single market or the customs union.


#734

Jesus. We’re screwed. Pursuing the hardest form of Brexit to appease tabloids and minority wing MPs


#735

Don’t worry. They won’t be out on the fringes once Rees-Mogg becomes Prime Minister.


#736

Walter on a human face forever


#737

Haven’t really been following this whole mess recently but is May still spouting ‘We want out of the customs union but we still want all the perks of the customs union’?

If so, yeah, can’t see why the EU would have any problem with that.


#738

Pretty much. It looks like she’s pinning her hopes on the vapourware magic “we’ll collect your customs duty for you” system they made up sometime last year.


#739

The ardent Brexiteer argument is that, if the UK leaves the custom union, the EU would never dare impose tariffs on imports because German car makers want to sell us their latest models and French vineyards want to sell us wine.

It’s fucking fairy tale shit. The EU are not going to compromise their vision to avoid destabilising plonk sales.

Will reality ever hit?


#740

Of course, but the snake oil salesmen will have run off with their winnings by that point