#255

I think this is all talking about what happens after Corbyn resigns, not what happens in the event of a Leadership challenge (which are different). So would be an open field - all candidates have to get 35 MP nominations to be on the ballot.

#256

Still fine with him tbh.

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#257

OK. But then, it seems unlikely that someone from that wing of the party would get on the ballot, given, as you say, that attempts to lower the threshold whilst Corbyn has been leader have failed. Can’t see him wanting that, which is why I thought the “staged coup” might be a way of achieving it. Otherwise he’ll just sit there refusing to move.

#258

Corbyn shouldn’t nominate a successor, really.

Just let some MPs try. Maybe they could all do what Corbyn did right in the first leadership contest and just talk about what they would plan to do and leave off trying to paint the other candidates as bad.

#259

But Corbyn’s space to negotiate is much diminished from last year and will narrow further if he loses one of the by-elections. He could have ensured his preferred candidate was on the ballot last year because the bulk of the PLP wanted someone else in charge for the first response to brexit. Now the issues aren’t as pressing the centre of the party might wait him out. They really don’t have to negotiate because there’s nothing new for Corbyn to fuck up on the horizon, now that all scrutiny of brexit will be going through the select committee that Benn is chairing.

#260

i don’t see how you can address inequality without directly challenging capitalism and pushing for full democracy. i guess this is where everyone agrees the trouble starts - people in the centre and on the right love capitalism, hierarchy, xenophobia, chauvinism, classism, public cash covering private debt, and think we have enough democracy atm and any more would be a threat to their money. they agree on these basic bigotries so it’s easy for them to unite.

i think (hope) the stateless society of equals without gods or masters will arrive eventually, but it could be 500 years away yet.

#261

same but don’t think he can really weather this brexit storm, even though i think he’s probably called it right ultimately

#262

If we assume that Corbyn goes of his own accord and there isn’t an easy path for a chosen successor, then the non-left PLP have a difficult choice ahead of them - do they deny a chosen figure from the left of the party a place in the process and thereby risk losing another chunk of the party’s current voter and membership coalition for the forseeable future in favour of a set of figures the parliamentary party feel they can get behind in the hope of persuading a larger chunk of the electorate to switch to Labour or do they allow a “wide range of (probably inexperienced) voices” to be heard in the leadership election, risking the current mess persisting and a portion of them feeling they can’t back their leader on issues such as immigration.

From the outside looking in, both choices looks risky from the perspective of a Labour centrist, moderate or even centre-left figure - not a decision I envy them making.

#263

You would hope third time around that certain folk would have their act together.

All very true. What remains is that Corbyn is firmly in control of all this. And there seems no reason to step down when a) he seems to be enjoying himself a lot more, especially in the chamber and b) when there’s internal battles wrt the NEC which are still to be won.

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#264

True although we don’t know what the Membership coalition will look like at the time of the next leadership election. The Membership is certainly not as Corbyn-friendly as it was, Corbyn himself was a big pull for many etc. etc. so… it is rather likely that the furthest left candidate (R L-B say) won’t start from as privileged position as is assumed.

#265

FWIW, there’s polling evidence to suggest he’s more or less called it right - a larger proportion of 2015 Labour voters (20%) would be angry if the party worked to prevent Brexit than would be angry if it doesn’t (7%). Soft Brexit is absolutely the right policy for Labour to follow in electoral terms.

Whether they can translate it into gaining votes in the medium term is another question though.

2 Likes
#266

Bloody voter triangulating Corbynites!

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#267

At the risk of sounding a bit mad - I genuinely think it may not be hyperbole to state that in the medium-term future we could be looking back and saying that Corbyn’s stance on A50 will have been the most significant contribution to ensuring Labour’s long-term survival. Really can see it playing out this way.

#268

want to write a 10,000 word reply to this but err

I think people on the left, right & centre actually share basic core values; that they want to feel that their lives are worth something, that they’re doing something rewarding & that their loved ones & the communities they’re a part of are valued & protected. This is essentially prosperity.

The spectrum of left to right is a gradient argument about how far we share prosperity or indeed whether we share it at all to which I’d add the axes of authoritarianism <—> liberalism which is a further gradient of how we actually do that in real terms, how we implement our left-right position

but to repeat, I honestly believe that, a few nihilists aside, people want prosperity

capitalism & nationalism are definitely ideas that we have to grow out of in order to get there though they have left us some useful tools with which to move on if we manage to avoid blowing ourselves up, dying in a deadly plague or simply being climate extincted

happy wednesday Corbyn!

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#269

Absolutely, and as @asita says, you’d hope that any other MPs standing would actually get their act together this time making it a tougher contest regardless of the makeup of the electorate and initial leanings.

What still concerns me really is I still don’t see too much evidence of someone who I think could make a serious dent in improving Labour voting intention in the medium term or change the current press narrative on any wing of the party - part of that is hopefully because of people keeping their powder dry for the time being, but I’m yet to be convinced.

#270

The other thing I think he’s got right is that he’s now doing his best to pin the result of Brexit on May personally; unless she can make a success of it (and the evidence so far isn’t promising) then she and the Tories may be in for a tough time when things bite. The only question is whether that’s before the next election (I still don’t see her holding an early one unless forced into it).

Obviously the risk is that Labour end up on the wrong side of the argument as the economy doesn’t bite in time.

#271

To conflate these two replies - I think Corbyn is now totally fucked electorally no matter how well he holds May to account over Brexit. Or indeed other issues (sounds like he minced her over social care at PMQs today). His cache as a Leader is blown (I’m not interested in another argument as to whose fault that is) and as such Labour’s natural ceiling seems to be a vote % which will lose seats. That’s unsustainable.

However it’s worth noting that all of May’s polling is vs. Jeremy Corbyn and this is an artificial lead she has. I reckon a class performer could easily have Labour back polling at 35% very quickly and also make May look v. shaky on Brexit.

I also don’t think the Labour party’s that badly placed for leadership candidates. Think there’s half a dozen which could do a strong job. From all over the party. We’ll be alright yet, one hopes.

#272

Yeah broadly get that sense anecdotally too. Don’t really care anymore tbh, traditional media and good old fashioned red terror’s smeared him into oblivion as it is.

#273

Agree on that part. Corbyn’s job now is arguably to position the party in the right place and soak up the flak himself until the next leader. Hopefully you’re right on the future… as I said, I’m more pessimistic myself, but would be happy to be proved wrong.

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#274

If I was a betting man I’d put cash on Keir Starmer being a Labour leader at some future point.