Coronavirus Thread 3 #ssp

Copying zeal’s OP from Coronavirus Thread #2

A continuation from Coronavirus Thread #ssp

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Can’t believe I killed the last thread with a pun about the Aeneid.

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So yeah according to Hancock:

If you’re asked to self isolate for two weeks due to having been in contact with a confirmed case then you can do it at home but those you live with don’t.

i can

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This is the way the thread ends. This is the way the thread ends. Not with a graph but with an “anus” pun.

:thinking:

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Bye!

Test and trace is going to be a nightmare for schools init?

@tuna did you put this in the ssp category as well as tagging it? (if not might need to summon one of the @moderators to get that done)

ah sorry - thanks.

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We go again

Remember when the government said international comparisons should wait until excess mortality figures were available?

(No paywall for this article)

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This sentence is extremely important “This means death rates in those countries are unlikely to overtake the UK unless they suffer a second wave of infections.”

Second waves might change this picture drastically, although at the moment you’d think we’re looking like we’re heading to the front of the queue to get one.

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Yes, that’s true.

For me, the most revealing comparison is of the regional spread in the UK vs France and Italy. As someone whose family lives in Somerset, I’m particularly worried that the decision to allow people to drive long distances to the beach or other beauty spots is already leading to an increase in cases in what until recently was the least affected English region (and which I would guess has the oldest population).

For me the big scandal is the care homes. The idea that at the beginning of this outbreak we shipped sick vulnerable people out of hospitals to clear ICU beds, into care homes, without testing them for the virus and then being surprised when we got outbreaks in care homes beggars belief. I can’t help feeling that’s the root of our high rates and frankly it makes me squirm to think that potentially the only advantage we might have internationally in terms of a second wave might be that we’ve actually infected a higher proportion of our vulnerable population in the first wave than other countries.

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The care home situation is certainly awful, and the government seemed to be in denial about it in the first half of April. In Belgium, for example, the care situation was similarly bad but at least it was acknowledged earlier and there was an attempt to do something about it.

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Particularly extraordinary as the whole point of a “herd immunity” strategy - leaving aside the merits of it being applied to this particular pandemic - is to spread the virus amongst those with the best chance of being (relatively) unaffected) while you shield the vulnerable.

Having apparently followed the herd immunity plan for a short while, then u-turned, the UK has seemingly ended up in a place where those least vulnerable have been locked down at home while the most vulnerable have been exposed to wave after wave of infection in close proximity.

It’s the worst of all worlds and, at least, criminal negligence yet again from the government.

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Honestly I think this is a very generous interpretation of what really seems like a “cross fingers and hope for the best” “strategy”.

Well, the plan was definitely there. But yes, I think you can definitely argue it was used to some extent as a “we’re following the science actually” way of ticking a number of ideal boxes for the PM: absolutely minimal effort required, small state intervention, let the public work out the risks for themselves, etc. Would have been terrible if Boris had actually had to attend some meetings or work in the evenings.