#127

It’s more that I don’t think it would be political destruction as colin said. I was more thinking of if they advocated a 2nd ref or just putting it in the bin not so much as how that would translate in a GE.

But the nature of fptp means that remainers often didn’t vote for lib dems cos what would be the point? The whole 80% voted for leave parties is disingenuous.

Also it wasn’t a vote for a remain party, it was a vote for the Lib Dems and all the baggage they have and even they were vague about their stance.

#128

The way I see it is if a party had stood on a “no Brexit” platform in 2017:

For the Tories, it would probably have seen them not gaining 4/5 of UKIP’s vote and possibly losing additional voters on the Brexit side of the party in that direction. Potentially they’d lose other votes from the “Business” type for pissing the economy up the wall for 18 months with no good reason, although that would hinge on Labour or Other looking suitably business friendly.

For Labour I think a chunk of their Leave voters would have gone to UKIP or thrown in the towel and given up on voting entirely.I think they’d also have struggled hugely to get their impressively popular manifesto a hearing over the short campaign and wouldn’t have seen anywhere near as many switchers giving Corbyn a chance because of it.

I also don’t think either party would see huge numbers flocking to them to replace those lost voters because our politics is too tribal - too many people refuse to ever vote Blue or Red - they’re only open to 3rd parties (so long as leaning that way doesn’t allow the enemy to win).

Obviously, all assumptions on my part though.

#130

Even if the referendum didn’t happen last year, even if Labour won in 2015, do you reckon something like Brexit was always inevitable in the future anyway? Or is this just a fluke/appalling timing?

#131

Definitely not inevitable - while the EU has tangible benefits for The UK, it has also proven to be a massively convenient pressure valve for the Tories/right wing press as a dog to kick/blame the ills of their own creation on. Why would you want to get rid of such a win-win situation?

#132

But even if Brexit was never inevitable, do you reckon a similar post-truth self-caused economic fuck-up always was? (Like how Trump won in America, for example.)

I think it probably is, and the same could happen in any country, even if it’s going through a period of economic prosperity. All it takes is an unpopular government, many dissatisfied people, and then some influential right-wing nutjob being given a platform to attract those people to vote for them in huge numbers. But it’s probably much more likely to happen through periods of austerity, in which people vote for something really right-wing (Brexit, Trump) believing that a ‘change’ like that means they’re somehow voting against austerity.

#133

Except Iraq was very unpopular even with the British public, right? I thought something like 90% of the public was against it at the time. It was mainly the political class that was in favour of it, nobody else.

Whereas Brexit is very much the opposite.

#134

That definitely wasn’t the case, I think it was far closer to 50/50 or even a small majority supporting the war. Certainly the vast majority of the press and politicans supported the war.

#135

Yeah, it feels like one of those collective delusions, where we’ve all retroactively decided we knew how terrible it would be from the outset and you can’t find anyone who thought it was a good idea… but lots of people did. It sent Chris Hitchens off the deep end for one.

#136

Yup:

#137

Crikey, I didn’t know that.

I always assumed the majority of the country was dead against it, and that that’s why Blair’s popularity suddenly fell considerably (although not enough for the Tories to win an election), hence why he remains one of the most hated people in the country. Even as a kid I remember that transition from the happy New Labour years to the miserable, ‘they lied to us’/‘Bliar!’ New Labour years.

#138

His popularity fell amongst progressives/those who had voted Labour.

#139

but presumably stayed amongst Tories who had voted Labour?

#140

Many people voted Labour in 2005 despite Blair being leader, or voted tactically for the LibDems, because the alternative was the Tories under Michael Howard.

#141

christ he was still defending the iraq war up until he popped. that other tosspot nick cohen is also still a huge fan.

#142

Quite how that whole Euston manifesto lot are still giving massive platforms when they’re intellectually and critically bankrupt is beyond me.

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#143

True. I still think it’s quite astonishing Labour won in 2005 despite Blair losing that much popularity. Even with the advantage of having 400+ seats from the previous election, I think an election victory like that would be less likely in today’s political climate, given that public opinion can change so much more substantially, and so much more rapidly, in such a short period of time. Social media is probably a factor.

I’m just guessing a fair chunk of people who previously voted for Thatcher/Major, and then Labour in 1997 and 2001, also presumably still voted Labour in 2005. Public opinion takes less time to change now compared to then.

#144

That Labour won that election says more about how dreadful the Tory campaign was than anything else.

“It’s not racist to impose limits on immigration… Are you thinking what we’re thinking?”

#146

Incredible. I was 13 in 2005, had no idea there was an election, or what political parties were, or really what Tony Blair even looked like.

#147

Tbf I was almost 13, I didn’t understand politics, my whole understanding was simply that Blair caused the Iraq war and was therefore bad.

I don’t think I knew there was an election either, or what political parties were. I just drew that because I saw it on the back of a Radio Times magazine, and added it to my scrapbook of cartoons which I was into at the time.

#148

Longer trains on HS2 innit.

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