French Presidential Election thread


#1

Maybe the wrong day to create a thread, but round 1 is coming up so may as well. The polls are pretty tight between the main four candidates, who do you think will make round 2? Macron v Le Pen still appears to be most likely just about. Macron v Melenchon would be funny to see the UK media’s reaction, but knowing our luck we’ll wind up with Fillon v Le Pen. Hopefully the polls having Le Pen losing by 10-20 points whoever she faces in round 2 have it right anyway.

I’d do a poll but for some reason I can’t seem to create one. Anyway, thoughts? Aside from ‘fuck all these elections’…


#2

Seems too close to call. Think with a bit of distance we can say that Le Pen won’t win unless a terrorist attack or something happens.

Melenchon’s rise has taken everyone by surprise - Hamon seemed like the left’s best candidate but he’s been thumped so far.


#3

Hoping for a left v right 2nd round

Melenchon in v the infinite sadness


#4

Glimpsed at some analysis earlier that suggested that even though JLM or Macron might win the presidency, the French electoral chamber (or whatever it is) is likely to be dominated by Republicans so… they’ll have a hard time getting anything done. Given that this vacuum allowed Le Pen to rise post-Hollande, JLM/Macron winning + not being able to enact his agenda = perfect terrain for Le Pen in 2021.

So yeah we should all be praying for Fillon or something.


#5

The weekend saw a lot of bollocks about leftists abstaining if their candidate doesn’t get through to the final round, plus the Melenchon hit-pieces in the ‘liberal’ media have kicked in like a reflex action…

https://twitter.com/hmclandress/status/853174557280272384


#6

That article was bizarre. There was literally NO data to support what it was saying.


#7

#8

Bump as today is the last day polls are allowed. Some speculation on whether last night’s shooting might help Fillon overhaul Macron or Le Pen. My natural pessimism over the last 1-2 years of elections says we’ll wind up with Fillon v Le Pen (and Fillon is the weakest opponent for Le Pen) but hopefully I’m wrong and these polls are on the money like they were in the Netherlands.


#9

https://twitter.com/sam_kriss/status/851186574125608960


#10

WEIRD how badly Hamon has done :disappointed:

also so weird how you basically have fairly even split between: far left, soft left, ‘centrist’, hard right and far right.

I think it’ll be Macron though


#11

What a strange, strange take


#12

I wasn’t really aware of him until a few months ago. He is absolutely awful.


#13

The take of an individual with innate characteristics that wouldn’t suffer under fascist rule, perhaps.


#14

Yeah this is what I don’t understand. Why the left have broken for JLM instead of Hamon. I can only think it’s because Hamon’s running as the PS candidate and is therefore getting the backwash of Hollande discreditation/hatred.


#15

I can see the UK media being somewhat confused if Fillon winds up winning. He’s a right-wing twat which they’ll love but he doesn’t fit the populist/anti-establishment narrative they’re obsessed with.


#16

Like Theresa May, then


#17

there’s also similar treatment from the PS to that of the Labour Party towards Corbyn and Miliband. WHEN WILL THEY LEARN??


#18

He does clarify it a little bit in the conversation afterwards.

Only a little, mind.


#19

Yeah

https://twitter.com/sam_kriss/status/851194540845391872

Exactly HOW undialectical DO you have to be???


#20

Was about to reply with pretty much exactly the sentence you added in your edit