I’m gonna say 5 shots. I could get it in 3 and it not be that big a surprise, it’s happened a decent number of times, but I’ve also lost several thousand golf balls in my time, so really anything could happen.
Very much dependent on the tee shot. There’s about a 20% chance that goes well and punts me 100+ yards up the fairway, in which case might get down in about 4 from that point. More likely the tee shot shanks wildly in to some filthy rough, and then we could be looking at double figures.