Labour Party Thread: Things Can Only Get Worse

Posting about football in the football threads is so passé

It’s Airbus. Arms are only a bit of there revenue and they don’t do much of the directly aggressive stuff in the UK but that’s how you make arms manufacture manageable.

They’re a big manufacturer and none of the stuff in the UK is scary so the plant just has big planes probably, but its just another tick in the right column and the millionth cross in the left.

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Feeling pretty estranged from my Labour rn #justmarxthings

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:baguette_bread: Work and Organised Labour :rose: - News & Politics - Drowned in Sound | Community

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I’ve pretty much given up on Labour entirely, can barely be bothered to check this thread anymore, seems so futile. Like who cares what Keir Starmer or any of them have said. Huge waste of time.

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I know we take the piss but, every now and again little things like this give me a tiny, tiny, tiniest sliver of hope that all is not going to be fucked forever:

This is a very interesting thread, and well worth a read:

Not least, this part:

622 votes in a by-election, is it?

I’m not too sure that this one is a marker for how bad Starmer is doing, tbh. There was a tacit ‘vote tactically’ message going out, and minimal support for the Labour candidate from the national party.

What’s interesting is whether this is just a by-election blip, whether Labour supporters will continue to vote tactically for the LibDems as they did in the 00s (the anti-Tory feeling might be strong, but the LibDems do not yet stand to the left of Labour, the Coalition wasn’t that long ago and Swinson’s shithousing was even more recent), and how much of the LibDem vote was made up of anti-HS2 NIMBYs.

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Yeah the LDs have always been able to pull a by-election upset on occasion. It seems their Only We Can Win Here messaging hits home when the ruling party is associated with some NIMBY type issue as here.

A strong Lib Dems is supposed to be asset for a Starmer-esque leader, one who doesn’t scare the centrist voter who worries about ‘radicals’ getting into power if they don’t vote Tory. One of those things that makes sense, just don’t know if it ever actually happens.

It’s only an asset if the LibDems run their campaigns on a platform to the left of Labour (as they did throughout the 00s), and as a result Labour supporters vote tactically in LibDem/Tory marginals.

The Tory 2015 victory was in a large part a result of Labour supporters refusing to give LibDems their tactical vote following the years of the Coalition.

I very much doubt that there are or were many Tory people who would vote LibDem in a LibDem/Tory marginal, whoever the Labour leader is.

There is the possibility of LibDems voting tactically for Labour in Lab/Con marginals, if the Labour leader doesn’t scare the horses, but I don’t think that they exist in the numbers needed to make a difference these days. Unless the LibDems shift their positioning, they’re destined to stay at the same kind of level (and same kind of Orange Book voters) as they’ve had for the past decade.

The Greens could definitely see a surge, if their England & Wales section took a leaf from the policy book of their Scotland equivalent, and significantly increase their vote amongst the young and in cities, but everything points to them tacking alongside the LibDems at the moment, including opposing HS2.

Anecdotally, it’s half my parents friends and acquaintances in the west country. People for whom this is a conversation definitely exist, what I don’t know how genuine or decisive the concern is, or for that matter how regional it is.

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Tory to LD is definitely a thing here

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There are more of these people than you might think. My entire mum’s side of the family for instance.

If I were going to profile them I’d say - (mainly) white immigrants from working class backgrounds who’ve done well economically and moved to the suburbs or the countryside. Economically liberal/Conservative, socially a bit conservative too but if there’s a good alternative to the toffee-nosed posh boy Tory candidate they’re gonna take it every time

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It is, but I don’t think it’s something that is dependent on who the Labour leader is, unless they’ve completely forgotten about the Coalition and who makes up the LibDem MPs these days.

If anything, the LibDems are less likely to prop up a Labour government with someone like Corbyn in charge than they are with someone like Starmer.

This doesn’t exactly belong in this thread, but this is good news, if you want to avoid the likely dreadful consequences to the wider Labour movement of a Coyne victory:

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Probably a sensible decision, but I think turnout this time round won’t really be comparable to the last election…