(Laying aside the fact it’s now the evening and I don’t have loads of time to faff)
I can’t really help you here because I have no idea what you think about this.
If you’re saying it’s meaningless then I’m cool with that fine.
But looking at how things were previously and the new projections, it seems very much like phrases like ‘haemorrhaging votes’ are pretty wild when you’re talking about a drop of 1.7%, given when you look at the history of the constituency the turnout numbers have been pretty consistently around the 51,000 mark for the last 4 GEs.
I’m literally looking at the comparison numbers and seeing that overall with the Tories with that huge lead it looks much more like they’re boosted by people who were voting for Brexit and an UKIP guy’s independent party and now consider the Tories to be acting in good faith along the same lines.
That really, if that poll is to be believed, it’s not looking so bad for Labour, but yeah: the Lib Dems are also seeing votes go away. Given the talk of Progressive Alliance types in Amersham maybe that represents LDs going to Labour which would mean a larger %age of Labour voters from 2019 have actually decided not to vote for them than it looks like.