I’m not really arguing otherwise. I was just pointing out that reading through the list of election results in that constituency I see a Labour majority constituency gradually become more marginal as a result of “Brexit issues”. To expand on the bit marckee disagreed with I would hazard a guess that in 2015 most former Lib Dem voters decamped to Labour, (although some will have gone to the tories), and at the same time the increasing significance of anti-Europe feelings saw voters for whom that was becoming their principal concern, switch from both Labour and the tories (more so) to UKIP. And ever since that point a coalition of tory voters and anti-europe voters would win the seat, which looks like what will happen this time.
But I don’t think the “fact” that those former Labour voters will now be voting for the tories necessarily means they now support tory policy. I think they have decided that anti-European policy is now their prime motivation. Which would explain why in 2017 when the argument was “won” they reverted to voting for the party that most reflected their other views, Labour.