New Brexit thread? (This is the new Brexit thread with added hysteria)


#621

New deeper stats about who voted for what


#622

Yeah and one of the ironies of course is that it was raised but they decided they didn't need to put those check in place as it was only an advisor referendum.
So you've got a situation where they want/say they have to implement a result that only came about because they didn't follow correct procedure they should have if they were going to go with the result whatever it was.


#623

so it's statistically proven that Leavers are stupid?

I'm being glib
but yeah, this analysis is both interesting and predictable ...for what it's worth

the whole situation is depressing

wish we had some data on the 13 million who didn't vote & the 1.2million 16-18 year olds who didn't get a vote


#624

Well I think it's dangerous conflate stupidity with education levels.

It's more confirming that a huge section of our population has been brutally left to stagnate. The fact they voted for Brexit is more showing the first time they got a vote where they were offered clear options to piss off the government.

I daresay if there'd been a Trident referendum you would have seen a big 'no' vote because it would have been clear the government wanted to do it. (I don't say 'no' would have won, I just mean the rebellion aspect was there.)

Obviously the issue here is that this isn't going to fix any of the problems people are having that made them vote Leave. Separate issue.

I haven't had a chance to read this yet but Congolesa Rice RT'd it on Twitter so it's probably worth a read
http://classonline.org.uk/blog/item/trumps-muslim-ban-is-a-warning-the-left-must-reject-anti-migrant-narratives


#625

I think a 50/50 with a minimum turnout would have been more useful and an easier sell

personally I would have like to have seen an 80% turnout threshold but it surely wouldn't have been hard to convince people that a minimum 75% voter turnout was the least you'd expect for a referendum with such enormous consequences though you might have had to make that legally binding

Cameron banked on the 'non legally binding' bit instead - the total thundertwat


#626

While putting in their manifesto that they would implement the result and it would close the EU debate.

He never thought for a moment it would be a leave result did he?


#627

It's also worth pointing out that education levels correlate with age too - university attendance wasn't anywhere near as widespread for the baby-boomer generation, and financial success wasn't so dependent on it either.

The wealthy, home-owning, university-of-life type is a staple Tory heartlands voter - a lot of the people who voted Leave were not those who have been 'brutally left to stagnate'.


#628

Agreed and, like I said, I was being glib. The UK has an enormous inequality problem due (partly) to a long class history mixed with years of Thatcher/Reaganomics and topped with the flagrant abuse of austerity & its dismantling of the welfare state, support structures & actual educational opportunities

pretty stupid to swallow the lies of Leave & believe that the fault for all of this lay at the feet of imgrunts and 'unelected beaurocrats' & bendy/straight bananas & 'legitimate concerns' though


#629

there is something he completely missed - the poverty & inequality in the UK - because he lived/lives in a millionaire ruling-class bubble

there is also something that I haven't really seen much comment on that was unpredictable and that I think had a huge influence on UKIP & eurosceptics ability to ram a certain message home; that the exodus from the Syrian conflict was enormous between Sept 2015 & March 2016. The message was that this was the beginning of a flood, that Britain would be overwhelmed.

Fact is, this period was not the beginning of anything, it was the absolute peak of exodus and has dropped hugely since.
No one seemed to recognise that at the time or even now because... ??... political expediency? Politics has stopped playing to facts and is only playing to demographics & feelings. And what's worse is that an idea has solidified in politics that there is a hardcore who don't need to be canvassed - that they are lifelong voters of one stripe - and it is the wavering 'middle' 5% whose fears need to be caressed in order to cross the 'winner takes all' threshold that we seem to have invested in as far as defining what democracy is or at least how it operates structurally

I'm really holding onto the hope right now that, due to the French Presidential election structure having a head-to-head run off as the decider, more people will vote against Le Pen/FN than for her. Otherwise Europe is fucked


#630

Absolutely. I've no doubt he was absolutely certain it would go his way. He got caviler having won the previous two referendums fairly comfortably (I don't think the AV vote was ever in doubt, and even though the Independence vote got a bit hairy for a week or two the final result was pretty solid). Tbh, I think hubris solidly characterises much of his time in No 10, but never more so than in his last 6 months or so.

With that said, I think when the manifesto was written the guaranteed referendum was probably one of the things that he and Osborne would have gladly bargained away to get some of the minor parties on-side - he probably never intended to actually hold it in the first place, but once in a narrow majority government there was probably no way out that would keep the Tory right onside (as justified as it would have been, any requirement for a super-majority or minimum turnout would have been spun as another example of the Westminster elite working against the working public).


#631

or indeed, as you point out, that Westminster having total control would be the solution to the problem and that somehow Europe was holding the Tories back from helping and caring for the working classes


#632

There were some disgusting headlines and articles in the right wing press about Turkey joining the EU and millions moving en masse to England to steal our benefits.


#633

yep

the whole leave campaign was a vile shitstorm of xenophobia, lies & political opportunism


#634

Don't worry, Brexit brings with it great opportunities


#635

absolutely...

this times a fucking million


#636

i would never get tired of punching nigel farage and michael gove in their weird faces. i'd keep going until my hands were as pulp.


#637

something i've not mentioned before as far as i remember... who's aware of the EU bank bail-in rules?

they came into effect at the start of Jan 2016 and haven't been used yet

could get pretty bloody messy the next time there's a financial crisis

of course it depends if there's a system-wide meltdown again, if there is then we could see rioting and bloodshed on a pretty harrowing scale

might be a few nukes thrown around before the next financial crisis tho, so maybe we should worry about that instead


#638

tell me about them.


#639

remember when we bailed out the banks and it cost the tax payer lots of money?

next time it happens to an EU country, that can't happen - the bank has to recapitalise using shareholders and senior bond holders and deposits from people with over a certain amount in savings (it's pretty high, 100,000 euros)

they did it in cyprus a while ago


#640

so we're what, quadruple fucked now? i take it we won't be protected by that same legislation once we leave. ffs trump should quit being a pussy and just drop the bomb on us already. better that than i should live to see £30 kit kat chunkies and orphans barfing soylent green in the rubble of post-second civil war piccadilly circus.