NFL Off season thread 2021

Assume they’re giving him the $75m(!!!) in cash this year and spreading the cap hit over the rest of the contract, which I think you can do? It’s all a bit Numberwang though.

Sounds as if the Lions will be letting both Kenny Golladay and Romeo Okwara walk, which seems foolhardy. The Bears have tagged Allen Robinson so Golladay will be the top FA receiver (if he wasn’t already).

Pretty nakedly going hard reboot and planning to actually try compete again in 2023 or so. No point paying massive money to a good receiver only for them to be looking for their next big money contract by the time you’ve got your QB and so on in place. Still a shame to lose players who are actually entertaining to watch though.

#trusttheprocess #biteakneecap

Does that make it less likely Robinson leaves? I’m not really sure how that works tbh

It’s basically a 1 year extension on 120% of his salary

So less likely he’ll leave, cos it’d have to be a trade

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Trent Brown back to the Pats.

Golladay’s 27, coming off an injury riddled season and doesn’t fit the Lions’ timeline to be competitive at all. I hate it from the standpoint of letting a draft success story walk, but I don’t think giving him $20m+ for the next 4 years is particularly a good idea. I’d like Okwara back, but it would probably be a mistake to pay him top level pass rusher money off the back of a total outlier season.

Everything the Lions do has to be about what happens 2/3 years down the line, not next season.

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What are your draft thoughts?

Feels a little like they’re giving up on Goff already though, I think keeping Golladay for a year under the tag would at least give him a reliable target as he learns the new offence. Marvin Jones is probably going too so they’re going to be pretty threadbare at receiver.

I don’t watch college football, so I don’t know much of anything about the individual players. The Lions probably have fewer than 10 players I would consider definite NFL starters, guys that other teams would compete for if they became available: Ragnow, Decker, Hockenson, Swift, Flowers, Fox, Okudah (you have to give him the benefit of the doubt, IMO), maybe DaShawn Hand if he can stay healthy and possibly Tracy Walker in an actual NFL defensive scheme. Everyone else is at best completely replaceable, and I think a decent number will never suit up for another NFL team. I think it would be crazy to actually pick at 7, with the possible exception of taking Justin Fields if the front office is convinced he’s a star. Otherwise, trade down as often as possible and take the best player available at every pick. The only positions I wouldn’t use a pick on are C and TE if there’s starter level talent on the board.

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As much as I like Golladay and Jones, I’m not convinced either is the best type of receiver for Goff - they both do their best work on contested catches and I think the offense is going to be geared towards play action, quick throws and getting players the ball in space. Golladay is good, but for me, the biggest mistake the Lions can make is giving top 10-15 at the position talent top 5 money, which I’m pretty sure is what he wants. I’m sure the Lions explored a tag and trade but there probably wasn’t much of a market, if there was one at all.

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Reckon fields goes at 2. Someone will fall in love with him enough.

Think the lions need to hope for a run on quarterbacks really. The next 3 after fields (lance, Jones, Wilson) could go anywhere but if fields is gone at 2, there’s a few teams who might trade up to get their guy at 7

years into following the NFL and the draft/pay structures still baffle me :laughing:

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Aye, even if Fields is there at 7 I would much rather the Lions traded the pick to somebody who’s desperate for a QB and I think that’s how they would get the most value back. I think it’s more likely that Lawrence, Wilson and Fields are all off the board by pick 5, which would leave me hoping that someone wants to jump the Panthers for Trey Lance.

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Funnily enough there has been Kyle Pitts chat, on the basis that he’s essentially a big WR, but I don’t think that will happen.

I think if they think a QB, whether it’s Fields or Lance, is THE guy they should pull the trigger at seven. You never know when you get the chance again and have a lot of draft capital in the next two years to restock. Sit them behind Goff, then dump his big contract and make a big push with the newcomer, a bunch of first round picks and more FA money.

But otherwise you’re right, you could move back and still get a quality WR or tackle or plenty of other pieces.

If they’re absolutely, 100% sure that a QB is a star, then I would agree. I’m not sure a new regime scouting this college football season could possibly be that sure on anyone except Lawrence. My main issue with it is that this roster is at least two years away from being competitive (and we’re stuck with Goff for two years minimum), and even that would basically require every draft pick to become at least a starter level player and the Lions to nail free agency 3 years on the bounce. A good QB on a rookie scale contract is too valuable to waste if you know you’re going to suck.

I’m increasingly of the opinion that there are only really 8-10 QBs who are worth starting QB money, everyone else is probably better off with a rookie and swapping them out every 5 years. Guys like Goff and Wentz are fine at under $10m a year because you can load up elsewhere, but then a huge problem at anything more. I’m not even 100% sure QBs in the Stafford/Ryan tier are a net positive on $30m plus these days.

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Fields is such an interesting prospect, I haven’t seen much of his tape but the opinions of people who have range from next Mahomes to nothing but red flags. I imagine the truth is somewhere in the middle and that a lot of those red flags stem from the Ohio State QB problem (which Dwayne Haskins did nothing to help).

Much like Mahomes I think Fields really needs to land in the right place to realise his potential. Think if the Jets pass on him (a big if) he stays on the board until Carolina at 8 unless someone trades up (Denver or Indy seem like the most likely options here).

What I’ve heard and read seems to suggest his evaluation is very similar to Deshaun Watson in terms of traits, but with a doubt over whether he’s that good.

If we assume that the Jags take Lawrence, then I’d guess these teams have to be at least seriously thinking QB:

  • Jets/Seahawks @ 2 (Wilson trade)
  • Texans/other trade partner @ 3 (Watson trade/Dolphins trade down)
  • Falcons @ 4
  • Panthers @ 8
  • Broncos @ 9
  • 49ers @ 12
  • Patriots @ 15
  • WFT @ 19

And on top of that, not 100% sure you could rule out the Raiders, Bears or even the Saints falling in love with someone enough to do something truly daft. Then again, I’m probably trying to talk myself into the Lions getting a big offer for 7 too much here…

Zach Wilson going at 2, surely?

Kwon Alexander and Emmanuel Sanders cut by the Saints, whose cap deficit now stands at $31m. Taysom Hill’s cap hit now the third highest on the Saints roster next year (Michael Thomas and Terron Armstead, fact fans).

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