Non-UK political happenings thread

Protests of many shapes and sizes in Russia today campaigning for Navalny’s release. Many arrests.

they’re all wearing coats, they’ll be fine

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Putin’s most recent approval rating was 107% so he must be doing something right.

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I’ve seen several news reports on the BBC and ITN about the protests in Russia and not one of them has even attempted to explain the political views or policies of Navalny, nor who he represents.

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Yep, I’ve only really seen/read the BBC reports, and him being poisoned by and standing up to Putin’s government just makes me assume he’s a good guy as I’ve heard nothing to the contrary!

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he’s a neonazi sympathizer. it’s a lot like when we were being told about those moderate rebels yearning to bring anarcho feminism to the syrian people.

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My enemy’s enemy is… never you mind.

It’s been a minute since I mentioned how much I hate this slimy streak of piss hasn’t it

Obviously, incredible aerobics video aside, this looks pretty grim for Myanmar. @safebruv did you visit there recently on your big trip?

Seems like the military have taken control and enacted a one-year long rule. Christ.

Yep. Year ago yesterday we arrived there.
Lovely country, people are amazing. Everyone I met hated the military.
Think it could’ve happened at any time tbh. Complete tinderbox of rise of hardline buddhist nationalism, the history of military rule and war.
No idea it Aung San Suu Ky is as corrupt as everyone says either.

Their treatment of the Muslims is an absolute disgrace, not sure whether Aung San Suu Ky denied the cleansing was happening because of fear of the military or she was fine with it. Military being in charge is only gonna make it worse though.

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will be really nice imo if Lula runs next year and beats Bolsonaro

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This may increase political tensions in Bolivia:

Here’s the latest political update from the fractious European republic of the Netherlands:

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Let’s flesh that out a little bit, shall we …

Due to the current pandemic, polling stations in the Netherlands opened this morning at 7:30 AM for a three day voting marathon that will decide who gets to run the country for the next few years. Polling finishes on Wednesday at 9 PM. Election results are expected later that evening.

The Dutch people will be ruled by a coalition government, as no single party can realistically achieve a majority. This is one of the quirks of a PR voting system, one of the fairest in the world (0.67% of the vote will give you a seat in parliament).

The most recent coalition government was formed by 4 different parties, and collapsed in January over the child benefit scandal. There is no guarantee the parties that formed the last government will be asked to form the next government, regardless of the outcome of the election. Forming a coalition government is a long process (many months) of negotiations.

Based on the latest polls, this is how it looks (in brackets 2017 results)

Goverment parties

VVD 23.4% to 24.8% (21.3%)
CDA 10.4% to 11.4% (12.4%)
D66 8.9% to 9.9% (12.2%)
CU 3.7% to 4.2% (3.4%)

Right-wing parties

PVV 11.5% to 12.6% (13.1%)
FvD 2.4% to 3.1% (1.8%)
JA21 1% to 1.6% (0%)

Left-wing parties

Groen Links 7.2% to 8% (9.1%)
SP 6.3% to 7.2% (9.1%)
PvdA 7.7% to 8.5% (5.7%)
PvdD 3.6% to 4.1% (3.2%)
Denk 1.3% to 1.9% (2.1%)
Volt 0.8% to 1.9% (0%)

Centrist parties

50plus 1.5% to 2.1% (3.1%)
SGP 1.9% to 2.2% (2.1%)

As you can see, prime minister Rutte’s party (VVD) is expected to win big, but its coalition parties are losing, so he may need to look elsewhere. The big question is whether to turn right (but Wilders’ PVV is not doing as well as expected) or to turn left (his former mates PvdA are looking to do well too).

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Really appreciate this summary, thanks.

Been trying to learn as much information as I can about this election, but my naivity of this country in addition to the politics of coalition formation mean that I’ve missed a lot of nuance with the number shifts and this has helped.

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Dutch elections - exit polls

Polling stations closed half an hour ago and the exit polls have just been released.

The above lists seats (not percentages). There are 150 seats available, so a coalition government needs at least 76 to have a majority.

Biggest winners are prime minister Rutte’s VVD. Big surprise is the result for one of the other governing parties, D66. If this is correct they are almost guaranteed to be able to continue in government. The two parties only need to find another 14 seats, which current coalition partner CDA can deliver. In this case the 4th coalition partner, the CU, will end up empty handed.

The first reliable projection of the actual election results is expected by midnight local time (11 PM in the UK)

Yesterday at a press conference Aussie right-wing PM Scott Morrison took a pre-arranged question at a press conference with a pre-rehearsed answer.

We know this because he works for Fairfax/9 and the Sydney Morning Herald which is F/9 paper published not only the question but his precise answer noting it had been received on Wednesday Morning, but they did it 30 minutes before he answered.

https://twitter.com/DemocracyIt/status/1372000722439397376

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Dutch elections - results

With almost 80% of votes counted, this is what the seat count looks like:

VVD: 36 (+3)
D66: 24 (+5)
PVV: 17 (-3)
CDA: 15 (-4)
SP: 9 (-5)
PvdA: 9 (0)
FvD: 8 (+6)
GroenLinks: 7 (-7)
Partij voor de Dieren: 6 (+1)
ChristenUnie: 5 (0)
JA21: 4 (+4)
Volt: 3 (+3)
SGP: 3 (0)
Denk: 2 (-1)
50Plus: 1 (-3)
BoerBurgerBeweging: 1 (+1)

Winners are the right of centre liberals VVD, the left of centre liberals D66, the far right FvD, the pro-animal PvdD, the far right JA21, the pro-European Volt and the farmer protest group BBB.

Two left wing parties that both have their origins in communism, the SP and GroenLinks, suffer bad defeats.

The next government will most likely be a continuation of the current one, VVD+D66+CDA, with prime minister Rutte at the helm for a record breaking 4th term.

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