After 78% of the votes have been counted:
KEIKO FUJIMORI: 51.943%
PEDRO CASTILLO: 48.057%
As noted previously, a Castillo win wouldn’t have been a cause for celebration given his stance on abortion, same-sex marriage and other social reform issues but Fujimori as president is undoubtedly the worst outcome.
the cursed ratio as well
The gap between the two candidates continues to narrow, as the final votes coming in are mostly from rural areas.
After 86% of the votes have been counted:
KEIKO FUJIMORI: 50.769%
PEDRO CASTILLO: 49.231%
It’s getting very tight now.
After 90% of the votes have been counted:
KEIKO FUJIMORI: 50.353%
PEDRO CASTILLO: 49.647%
The gap is now less than 26,000 votes
After 93% of the votes have been counted:
KEIKO FUJIMORI: 50.078%
PEDRO CASTILLO: 49.922%
Not really sure where this ought to go, but top hypocrisy from Russian politicians here
The tables have turned
After 94% of the votes have been counted:
PEDRO CASTILLO: 50.076%
KEIKO FUJIMORI: 49.924%
Is it still mostly rural areas to be counted? Saw people saying the international voters could tip it the other way again but idk what % that constitutes either
Very difficult to say what will happen.
The votes left to be counted are remote rural areas and a number of countries abroad.
In total just under a million Peruvians who are eligible to vote live abroad. That’s approximately 5% of the electorate. However, turnout abroad is much lower, between 35% and 40%, whereas in Peru itself turnout is 76%.
The countries abroad where votes have been counted have all gone to Fujimori, usually by 2/3 of the votes and only 1/3 for Castillo. In the UK the result was 69% vs 31%. Countries that haven’t declared yet and that could tip the balance include Spain and the US.
Latest, after 95% of the votes have been counted:
PEDRO CASTILLO: 50.167%
KEIKO FUJIMORI: 49.833%
This appears to be widely off the mark. It is more like 225,000. 26% of the votes abroad have been counted and turnout is 38%. That means there are 63,000 votes from abroad left. Castillo is currently just under 88,000 votes ahead. Even if all voters from abroad have voted for Fujimori they can’t overturn Castillo’s lead.
It looks like it’s reasonably safe to go to sleep in anticipation of a declaration that Castillo will have won come tomorrow morning.
“Please OAS, find me a reason to justify a coup”
The OAS didn’t find any major problems during Sunday’s election, according to a preliminary assessment:
Latest, after 96.4% of the votes have been counted:
PEDRO CASTILLO: 50.288%
KEIKO FUJIMORI: 49.712%
As has been pointed out previously, he is wrong about overseas voters - they cannot overturn Castillo’s lead.
He doesn’t say that they could. He says that it could be enough for Fujimori to whip up stories of voting irregularities and legitimacy.
That has already happened.
Whatever the outcome of this election, the winner will have a margin of less than one percent, so the loser claiming voter fraud is inevitable. To illustrate, more than 5% of the votes cast on Sunday have been rejected as invalid. If there is a smoking gun, that’s the place to look, not the overseas votes.