November Politics Thread: Countdown To The Lizard Cull

[almal100]

Didn’t they suppress that one as an outlier though?

It was only survation (iirc) who released anything close to a hung parliament

[pervo]

It was definitely available before the election; I was looking at it the night of the London Bridge bombing (at my friend’s birthday night out a mile away from there )

[anon76851889]

If you’re talking about what I think you are, it wasn’t a constituency poll, it was their Multi Regression model - it’s the same idea that the Best For Britain mob claim they’ve gone with, only done by a company with some kind of reputation and without the fudge factor that B4B had added in.

They haven’t rolled it out yet this year and there’s no guarantee they will either, although I suspect we’ll see it nearer the time.

@profk - Survation have done a few constituency level polls. There was a Portsmouth one recently and another cropped up earlier today from memory.

[1101010]

POTW @JaguarPirate

[almal100]

Oh. Might have just been an opinion poll

I remember there being a lot of talk about how nobody predicted the actual result, and then one company saying “we did, we just thought it was stupid and didn’t tell anyone”

[TheWza]

Is there even the remotest chance that Labour would ever get enough MPs in a UK which didn’t include Scotland, to then take power?

There’s more than “the remotest chance”. There’s every likelihood.

What those who say that Labour cannot win without Scotland are really saying is that they do not believe Labour can ever win a sizeable majority again. This may or may not be true but it’s a different debate. History suggests that England and Wales alone are capable of electing a Labour government when the conditions are right. - New Statesman

But that’s just words. Let’s dig out the numbers.

@anon76851889 has done it for 2017. Let’s go back further.

In 2015, even if Labour had won all 59 Scottish seats, by taking the 1 Con, 1 LD and 56 SNP seats, rather than just the 1 it actually won, it would still have only been on a UK total of 291, 35 short of a majority (and behind the Tories’ 330). Even winning all the Welsh seats would have only added another 15 seats (on top of the 25 Welsh Lab seats they’d already won).

Going back even further, to emphasise the point…

Between 1945 and 2010, MPs returned from Scotland decided who governed the whole of the UK on three (possibly four) of the 18 elections.

You see the trend here? It’s almost always been the case that whatever government England wants, it gets.

(This ought not to be a surprise when you step back from instinct or assumption, and consider the relative population sizes.)

- Table source, with additional commentary.

[1101010]

Amazing work.

The best bit was it slowly loading as I scrolled to it so that it seemed to be speeding up like a Zoetrope getting going.

[anon76851889]

There was a poll supressed by someone that was due out the day before, yeah. Can’t remember which company it was though.

[1101010]

Ofcom receives complaints over Sky News’ ‘empty chairing’

Ofcom has received 23 official complaints following Kay Burley’s “empty chairing” of Conservative Party chairman James Cleverly on Sky News this morning.

The media watchdog is considering whether to investigate after the Sky News presenter conducted an empty chair “interview” and claimed Mr Cleverly had missed a planned interview on her breakfast show.

The complaints are understood to relate to Ms Burley’s claims and empty chair gesture, PA news agency reports.

Heh heh… What a bunch of arseholes.

All 23 of them were James Cleverly phoning Ofcom using false names while standing in the studio…

[1101010]

You are correct that with Halloween over I need a new avatar image. Apologies.

[he_2]

I am no fan of Kay Burley.

Not am I a great fan of Andrew Neil.

But, just seen clips of the former empty chairing Cleverley (never was an individual more misnomered, it’s nigh on Dickensian!) and the latter incredulously asking Nadhim Zahawi whether Corby North would have Billionaires shot (Zahawi doesn’t know, as it goes) as Stalin did was all rather masterful.

[1101010]

I feel like Kay Burley seems to have a lot of absolute howler moments (I guess pun accepted regarding sad dog, now I’ve spotted it) but whenever I watch her spar with people who dislike her on Twitter she seems like a she’s actually a decent person. She doesn’t seem to get too rattled and stuff, so I’m okay with her.

Just watched the Andrew Neil thing. Wow. It’s really interesting to see the Tories wedding themselves to this idea of Brexit and how opposed it really is to so much of what they’ve always stood for, and the effect. You can really feel that centrist, business side of Conservatism thrashing like mad to understand what to do and I see Neil as part of that block, I suppose. He’s literally holding out his hand to Zahawi saying, “Look, meet me on this, we can do the necessary PR work on this right now and help the Tories not to look ridiculous,” but NZ just ignores it.

[Icarus-Smicarus]

I feel like Kay Burley seems to have a lot of absolute howler moments

forgot about this unfortunate one

remember this reply absolutely doing me in for some reason

Fred Delicious (Fred_Delicious)

[1101010]

Yeah it’s interesting when you look back on the results. I was wondering if Labour could have won 2017 if all of Scotland had gone red but, nope, still short by a some distance.

And then clicking back through the last few GEs, for all the moaning about no Labour victories ever, the post-election map of Scotland remains remarkably yellow/orange even in 1997

[1101010]

Even this has an endearing level of WTF to it.

I like how she got grumpy with the guy replying to Owen Jones saying she was a Tory.

Proper drunken pub, “Come on, show us your proof, son,” stuff
(This also appeared to be her only interaction with the post although maybe she did some quote-Tweeting nuttiness too.)

[anon76851889]

Love all the Simpsons memes and that, but never forget that this kind of thing is why we do this.

[ltlht]

Ian Austin is pure scum isn’t he. Genuinely having the brass neck to tell labour voters to vote for boris in the name of ‘anti-racism’

[anon76851889]

It’s all a bit “so you’re saying that anti-Semitism is more important than racism against non-white people?”

[Will28]

I imagine if the polls continue to narrow and the Tories continue to fuck their campaign up through being generally awful, you’ll hear and read more from people like this. I mean, he isn’t even standing so why he’s on the radio I’m not sure.

[kiyonemakibi]

Don’t know about 2017 but I know in 2015 Survation (or one of the polling firms anyway) didn’t release a poll on the day of the election or the day before which had the Tories five or six points up as it didn’t match all the other ‘neck and neck’ polls