#7167

I think we need to steady the ship a bit here. The polls are just there to make us feel shit. Their methodologies can’t adapt to the changes in the electoral calculus that Brexit and other recent issues have made a reality. The electorate is more volatile and unpredictable than ever before. Loads of young people are voting for the first time.

I’m guilty of letting my head go down earlier today, but we need to hold the line.

It is definitely not over and there’s nothing to be gained by giving up now.

10 Likes
#7168

The YG poll is heavily predicated on the Tories picking up dozens of seats in Leave-supporting midlands and northern constituencies, which is exactly what every wonk was confidently predicting would happen in the last election. As it turns out the Tories have done exactly jack shit for those areas whilst in government, people there have long memories, and it was a total washout for them. Also the notion of Labour not picking up a single victory shows exactly what’s wrong with this kind of blanket poll.

We always knew if the election was about Brexit, the Tories would get a comfortable majority. Labour has done a pretty good job of steering the conversation away from it - that has to continue over the next couple of weeks.

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#7169

If we don’t win can they give Ed another go? Feel bad for him

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#7170

Reading back I was hunting for the post to reply to and this is it (thought it would have been one of @anon76851889 's tbh but there you go).

This election is going to throw up dramatic swings in a small number of seats. It’s also going to deliver a result that’s determined on a small number of seats, probably. National polls are by design going to be appalling at predicting the results of those swings. It doesn’t matter whose methodology you follow or whose history you analyse, they’re going to be random, and one of those random polls is going to be closer to the final result than the other ones. Randomly.

The important things to do are:

  • Keep your cool
  • Campaign for votes
  • Don’t make bad things worse
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#7171

Apparently the leftist Corbyn haters believe Keir Starmer is their man.

#7172

(You meant @anon76851889 btw.)

#7173

I certainly did. Fucking internet.

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#7174

Probs just cos he’s a white man with no stubble. No offence to keir who is probably fine

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#7175

‘leftist Corbyn haters’?

#7176

Yeah this one made me stop to ponder for a while too.

#7177

Eh?

I mean if you don’t think there are loads of people out there who hate Corbyn personally but are fully into the idea of keeping the NHS and the majority of his policies then I would direct you towards the Guardian.

it’s a wide spectrum of people out there. I have a lot of FB friends from a lot of different backgrounds and it’s there. I mean you can write them off as centrists but pretty much all of them are passionate Blair haters too so…

EDIT: the consolation is that the Tories are so much worse this election than 2017 I am seeing a lot less of the hand-wringing about having to vote for Labour regardless.

2 Likes
#7178

The type of person who’s on board with the Labour manifesto but hates Corbyn doesn’t realise that any leader of the party that’s left of Blair is going to wind up dragged through the mud regardless. The candidate that 90% of the media isn’t going to relentlessly describe as totally unsuitable doesn’t exist.

Starmer would be a dreadful leader fwiw. Very odd man inextricably associated with Brexit.

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#7179

There’s a lot complexity here I guess. I’m not agreeing with the people I’m talking about but a lot of them just hate him for a lot of reasons. One friend whose job basically requires EU stuff hates him first for feeling he failed in the referendum and then for comments the day after about how A50 should be submitted immediately.

Others just have that thing where they think he’s a shit leader. Again, it’s not about agreement, people have their opinions, and yes they are believing a lot of media stuff. I’m not validating their choices just noting that Keir Starmer seems to be the favoured choice from this particular group.

And yes, I term them leftists. They agree with paying taxes, with raising the amounts like Labour want to do etc. They just hate Corbyn and think he is worse than others would be in the same position.

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#7180

Not saying you can’t be critical of Corbyn either - he very clearly does have weaknesses. But when I try and get to the root of why left-sympathetic people hate him, it always comes down to ‘just not suitable’, ‘useless on Brexit’ and ‘anti-semite’. First two are pure media messaging, for the last replace that with something else they’d quickly find on the next leader to conduct months-long wall-to-wall smears with.

#7181

I get that. Maybe it’s cross purposes: I thought your response (combined with @colinfilth’s follow up) implied to me that you didn’t think someone who hated Corbyn could be truly considered a leftist.

#7182

is it not the case that this poll predicts a very low young voter turnout? I saw someone say that and I’m going with it. in which case the poll is probs going to be quite inaccurate??

December 12th gonna be like this except young voters

a sword-day, a red day, ere the sun rises

5 Likes
#7183

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#7184

I don’t have any data or evidence to back this up, but I think when it comes to the day and it’s wet and windy and cold, a load of Tory voters will just stay at home because they don’t really like Boris and don’t think Jez has a shot so they aren’t energised. People forget this but the Tories really did love May at that last election, and all the Brexit lot were boosted by her rhetoric as well. That just doesn’t exist this time round, but we’re all drinking premium unleaded for breakfast dinner and tea and ready to send these greasy motherfuckers to the gulag.

15 Likes
#7185

This chimes with a conversation I had with my dad (63, prime boomer territory) about complacency in voting. He also mooted the idea that if you thought the result was in the bag for your chosen party, you probably wouldn’t go and vote. I found this a bit shocking, but maybe it also aligns with what Cummings was saying last night about it being ‘closer than you think’

1 Like
#7186

Aye this poll hasn’t taken into account the probability that there will be a higher youth vote than in 2015/2017. In 2017 the poll was somewhat inaccurate because of that approach:

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Which could be brutal for the poll predications. There have actually been rising jumps in young voters in the past 2 elections (tremors of a youthquake lol?), and it looks set to continue here:

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There is still so much hope everyone, not just for this election but for what comes after! Some boomers are saying the youth aren’t really engaged, and those that are will get bored and “move onto something else”.

They’re wrong. The newer generations are more switched on and that can’t be dismissed, nor will they get bored. They are being raised with an awareness of how difficult things are going to be for them (severe climate change, not having the benefits of being in the EU, increased gap between the rich and the poor) and that mix of resentment/concern isn’t something that fades away!

I’m sure there have been previous eras where the Tories’ under-34 vote has been nonesixtant, but Tories should be fucking terrified of this era and how it looks for their future!

6 Likes