The study can be found here: https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/7/11/e017722 where it is not behind a paywall.
It is a statistical analysis comparing the spending on healthcare in England between 2001 and 2014 and changes in how many people die each year in the same period.
I’m not a statistician so I can’t validate their calculation methods, but the report is a very interesting read nonetheless.
120,000?
Where does this number come from? The researchers found that between 2001 and 2010 the number of annual deaths in England decreased. Between 2011 and 2014 it went up on average (but in 2011 it still went down). The difference between the two trends for the years 2012 to 2014 is calculated as 45,000 additional deaths. The researchers then stretched this number over 7 years, taking into account the upward trend of increased deaths, and projected 120,000 additional deaths for the period between 2010 and 2017.
Austerity cuts?
The researchers found that the annual increase in spending on healthcare per capita in the period 2001 to 2010 was 3.82%. In the period 2011 to 2015 the annual increase was 0.41%. There is no denying that less money has been pumped into the NHS since 2010.
Are the two linked?
This is the big question. The researchers did not look at other factors that may have had an impact on the death rates between 2012 and 2014. What is the impact of an ageing population on death rates? Where there extremely cold winters? Or very hot summers? Was there a flu epidemic? Is three years enough to make such sweeping conclusions or is it just a statistical anomaly?
Conclusion
The study provides a compelling argument that spending more on heathcare will decrease the number of people that die every year. But it probably won’t wash in a court of law to prove beyond reasonable doubt that the Tory government killed 120,000 people since they came back in power.
