Imho it’ll cost the Tories a lot more seats than Labour, but would largely benefit the LibDems.
Plus their tide would fall slightly, imho. UKIP polled at 25% at one point, and at 17/18% in April 2015.
BXP get 18% of the vote, win maybe 15 seats.
Tories lose 30 to LD, 15 to Labour, and all of their seats in Scotland (13).
Literally no fucking clue what happens to the 21 “rebels”, as they could all go any which fucking way, but Tories are on about 200 by my tally.
Labour lose 10 to the LibDems, are up 15 on the Tories, and lose a few in Scotland. “Win” the seats back from the LibDems in Streatham and Liverpool Wavertree. Up 5 overall + who knows what for places like Broxtowe and Wantage (reckon this could flip if Vaizey runs against the Tories, though he won’t, as he’s a pot plant). 300
SNP will get 51
LDs will have fun and get about 50 or so, I reckon.
NI = 18
4 for PC.
Greens 1
Absolute Boy minority coalition. Easy.
This will
not happen.