I’m sure people will be doing it a lot over the next day or two, but has anyone calculated what the breakdown of voting on MV4 could be? For MV3 (not sure that’s the best comparison but hey ho) it was:
286 for
344 against
4 abstains
So Boris Johnson needs a swing of 58 in his favour. By wikipedia’s count, there’s 55 members of the ERG. So if every ERG member voted for it, he’d only be short by 3.
Of those 344 against, 34 were tories. 1 of which was Pritti Patel, who will surely vote in favour of a deal now.
Hot take: It’s gonna be close I guess?