Official general election thread


Yep, and its so frustrating. Was talking through this scenario with friends planning to vote Lib Dem because of Remain, and they basically said “But if there’s a big Lib Dem vote, it shows theres still opposition to Brexit”

Aaargh. There was a 48% opposition, and look how much use that is.


Ethical consumerism


their official party stance appears to be saying ‘labour wouldn’t have one with us so it’s off the table.’

but yeah. i mean the mind boggles. delusions of grandeur but not even slightly rooted in reality


They’re in a muddle here too. On the one hand they’re saying “only a vote for us can stop the Tories and Hard Brexit” on the other they’re saying “we’re back as a sensible party of government again… with the Tories mebbe”.

Can’t have it both ways this time lads.


It does, but on the other hand it also says a lot about how “swing voters” in the middle perceive May and Corbyn at the moment - Faron will do anything to avoid associating voting for the Lib Dems with putting Corbyn into power because Corbyn is so unpopular. Whether it should or not, the same thing simply doesn’t apply to the Tories/May at the moment, so there’s no need for Faron to dismiss coalition with them in the same way.

If post election Corbyn’s Labour party held the most seats in a hung parliament I’ll bet the Lib Dems would get into bed with them in an instant. It’ll never be proved though as that’s sadly not happening.


Lets get RICH with the Council!


They can and will. It’s bullshit that they’ll get away with it, but it’s already working.


Early days… early days.

Snap prediction colin - Labour seats on July 9th what you saying?


Actually, not ruling out a coalition with the Tories may help him in the Tory/Lib Dem seats where Labour doesn’t have a chance, but cost them votes with people that would choose between Labour/Lib Dem. So I might actually agree with what they’re doing there, but would hope (probably in vain), that if a scenario came up, they would tell the Tories to stuff it.



If this happens all of those Labour CLP Members will have to be expelled right?


True enough.

I don’t often think about seats tbh, but at the moment I think in vote share terms we’ll probably see something like

Con 42%
Lab 29%
Lib 13%
Others (the rest)

Seats, maybe something like

Con: 344
Lab: 210
Lib: 16
Green: 1
SNP: 55
Plaid: 3
NI: 19

It feels wildly optimistic in all honesty, but it’s just based on a feeling that balance imposed on broadcast TV and the Tory wish to stand on a manifesto of a blank sheet of paper will narrow the polls just a little.


Also, I suspect an all time low turnout thanks to voter fatigue. I’m undecided on whether this will help or hinder the Tories (whether additional non-voters will skew to Tory voters who believe they’re so safe it doesn’t matter, or younger voters who tend towards the left-er side of the spectrum)


If the Tories only gain 13 seats then May will be absolutely screwing. Be funny if it happened.

My current thinking is that Lab will go sub 200 (190 odd) but don’t know where the spoils will go between Tories and LD’s. Tories having a majority of about 60 sounds about right but could be a lot worse.


Someone should point out that 9 is a sacred number in Islam thus this is a secret Halal campaign


Well, yes. My issue really is in working from a starting point of vote share rather than thinking seats. As I say, Tories only 34 ahead of Labour feels low to me.

The other danger I can see for the Tories lies in their wish to “take their campaign to the people” (i.e. un-invite the press to anything not 100% planned and controlled) - Crosby largely got away with keeping the media at arms length during Boris’ mayoral campaigns because the press were only trying to generate a few pages a week on it. When they’re looking for a dozen pages a day I don’t think they’re going to be too happy with being shut out of it.


Instead of trying to analyse this depressing election, I have made a meme. I don’t think it’s any good, but I will let the people decide


Who knows but I doubt May is too bothered about Corbyn filling the vacuum caused by her not doing much. Give the least popular serving politician in Britain all the airtime he likes. Then if the polls change in Corbyn’s favour then you can get the “this man’s the biggest threat to our national security since dinosaurs roamed the earth” out and… yeah, job done.

The nuclear card hasn’t even begun to be played yet. North Korea have begun mucking about with nukes and Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t want us to have nukes? If he gets > 25% from that position then I’ll be darn-diddly-arned.


Oh, I don’t disagree. What I was getting at was more that if the Tories don’t allow access then they’re going to see less plaudits in the press and more neutral/negative coverage of their own campaign - much as they want to avoid talking about themselves and what they’ll actually do rather than slogans, the press have pages to fill and they’ll make up things if you feed them nothing or leave them feeling excluded (as Corbyn found when he was elected). Probably part of the reason they’ve gone for a short duration


The BBC really is full of shitheads. Humphrys absolving the Tories of any blame for shitty public services.