Political implications of the Manchester attack

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#1

theresa may sounded fucking raging there. decent speech, fair play

Manchester Arena explosion
Manchester Arena explosion
Manchester Arena explosion
#2

forgive the cynicism, but this is going to cause a swing back towards the tories isn’t it?

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#3

dont want to think about it tbh

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#4

See, this is something that I think needs talking about - for lots of reasons

Hard to do that so soon & probably should be a separate thread

But to answer your question…undoubtedly

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#5

one for the GE thread i think

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#6

Yeah, please start another thread for this.

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#7

yeah mods could you excise our posts from in here? @1101010 thanks

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#8

This was one of my first thoughts after the original sad/shock/despair of hearing it.

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#9

cheers dude

#10

it is certainly superb timing for the tories as well as the gutter press.

#11

Can’t think about it, we’re fucking doomed.

#12

I’m ashamed to say my first thought upon hearing about the tragedy was, “well, I guess this where the wave breaks for Labour then.”

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#13

Honestly not sure. Agree that there will be some traditional Tory voters who have wavered over the past week or so but I don’t think this is the sort of issue on which elections are won and lost.

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#14

have to say i wondered whether the monster who did this gave consideration to the timing of it. the threat of terrorist attacks hung around the French election too.

#16

That was my first instinct too but Andy Burnham is newly elected Mayor of Manchester so - and I really apologise in advance for the crassness of this - he has the Giuliani role. urgh

but it all comes down to things we don’t know yet - c&p from the GE thread;

There will be at least one direct consequence - security at polling stations is now a major issue & with 2 weeks until the GE the logistics of securing all those sites are immense

I think it may well suppress voter turnout too

I think that whether it favours the tories or not depends on so many things that we don’t know yet - most significantly the profile of the attacker

it could far-right white terror, it could be radical islamist terror. It could be lone wolf, it could be part of a campaign. We don’t know yet & each of these things would clearly lead to different consequences

It’s not uncommon for terrorist attacks to occur in the run up to elections; Jo Cox before Brexit, the shooting of the policeman in Paris a few days before the French election, the stabbing to death of Foreign Minister Anna Lindh a few days before Sweden’s referendum on adopting the Euro & of course the 2004 Madrid train bombing 3 days before the Spanish General elections

The Madrid bombings might give the best clue as ;

“The predominant view among political analysts is that the Aznar administration lost the general elections as a result of the handling and representation of the terrorist attacks, rather than because of the bombings per se.[17][18][19][20]” from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Madrid_train_bombings

I can’t help thinking that in times of uncertainty people tend to choose the Status Quo…but if the status quo is mass uncertainty (which it kind of is in the current UK political landscape) then maybe people will vote change

basically though it’ll come down to the attackers profile & how the political parties - and in particular Corbyn & May - come across in their handling of the aftermath

on a possible side note, the reluctance of May to engage with the public on campaign strategy grounds can now be hung on the excuse of ‘security’

#17

I expect May will go for the obvious increase security, tough on immigration stance, and Corbyn will say something more measured and get attacked for being weak

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#18

it’s really all on Burnham now

if he shows a dignified & human Manchester getting on with things while May shows a reactionary & frightened Westminster then it could all collapse for the Tories

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#19

broadly agree but that might be extremely wishful thinking

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#22

I mean yeah. Most of the narratives you read around terrorism is to try to force more authoritarian regimes so that you can actually cause the population to feel more afraid and more likely to cause unrest I think.

#23

There are a lot of unknowns at this point but I can’t help but think it fundamentally will come down to people trusting May more when it comes to defence. Even if Corbyn handles it well he’s starting with a handicap with his history with the IRA and Hamas, rightly or wrongly. I suspect the Tories were planning to shove all that front and centre before last night - whether they’ll risk looking like callous opportunists and do so now will be interesting.

I feel a bit queasy talking about this now tbh.