Lack of save was very shit, looked like the most unlikely win ever for a bit, generally a really good/profitable World Cup for me but unpleasant few days
You can usually back the boosts on exchanges if anyone bothered and wants more on than a fiver, you won’t get the same odds as book but they will be value from matched betters laying them off
I dont really understand in depth betting terms! I just back the superboosts mostly, I feel like thats the right level for me, odd bit of beer money here and there. Did put a builder on the Swiss game yesterday as I got a boosy increase and not a single leg came in
broadly speaking to be profitable long term you need to get the wrong price rather than you be right (i.e the odds be bigger than the probability chance implied). So just apply that to the boosts - the shot on target ones are good value, but the ones with other factors become less good value as you need things to stack up for you. Paddies had Yamal 4 SoT @ 9/2 as their boost the other day which was farcically shit.
I like a BB and my squad have been doing well with them this world cup, but they’re terrible value really. What’s been our engine has been our daily doubles for eg yesterday we had Messi to score, Switzerland to progress. The fewer legs you have, the more probability is still on your side. Case in point, we won on a 66/1 betbuilder, but it was only 4 legs
nice, what were the legs for that? i had 5 legs on the Colombia vs Switzerland game, thought most would come off but I also dont know much about either teams
I’ve noticed PaddyPower have started doing ‘super’ boosts which has a lot to it - the two yesterday were Diaz to have a SOT and be fouled twice but only at evens (he hadnt been fouled at all in his previous four games) and Messi to have two SOT and be fouled twice. seems a lot just for evens bets
probably just going to stick to boosts but might be worth sharing tips for next season if any good ones crop up
Sorry 5 legs - England to win, over 3.5 goals, both teams to score, Kane to score anytime, Rice to be booked.
I don’t often bet on football cos it’s priced really over aggressively I end up only really betting on underdogs in big games (Egypt were 10/1 and with 365’s 2 ahead offer wouldve paid out as a winner) or CBs anytime scorer in League One, but as there’s more liquidity in big tournaments there’s often more juice.
also muggy football bets are a good way of keeping your account
every weekend I used to stick 50p on 2 draws in random games on League One and 2 draws on random games in League Two. odds are usually around 110/1 and would pay out at least once a season, might start that back up
Like you say with accas and bet builders you’re often compounding bad value together if you’re taking multiple lines that all have a huge overround on them, it’s the main reason books push bet builders and accas as their margin on them is gigantic
The opposite applies if you’re taking say 5 components that are all beating fair value price, it will compound to a really good bet but obv you have to find multiple lines that are good, including things like corners, shots on target etc it’s possible, but working out the fair odds is harder so greater room for error
Most of the non superboosted builders are outrageously bad bets
Bet365 boost - Mbappe to score and France to qualify at 2/1
Paddypower - Mbappe 2 SOT and Dembele 1 SOT at 2/1
Can see Bet365 being a let down tbh
Our model suggests Mbappe anytime and both teams to score. 2/1. We’ve gone in hard
Where you getting 2/1? I make that great EV
Got 21/10 earlier today on 365
Actually just plugged the numbers in and coming out more 3.5 now
How are you modelling out of interest?
Slightly lazily - we’ve been putting the raw data into Claude, running our preferred bets and formats vs Dixon-Coles and adding adjustments as we go (heat, low block, late goals and elongated halves), dumping the prices in and looking for what is priced better than the market probability
Nice. I tend to go via the bet builder on Bookie Bashing, best value betting site by a country mile I think, some of the numbers they spit out worth double checking but very much worth the monthly fee
Could prob do a quick and dirty Mbappe AGS multiple with Morocco over 0 goals too for your bet, not sure there’s a Morocco oG market on BFEX but there def is one seeded on Smarkets
Bet365 have limited my superboosts to £1 
Probably best in long run. Did have a 30% boost in their daily draw so gone for BTTS, Mbappe anytime and Olise SOT, 4.5/1
Think they’re only playing at the final
You want some?
Had a few quid on France, Spain, Argentina and Norway to go through, all BTTS, and the main strikers all scoring.
Must have got decent odds on that?
About 400/1.
Total punt obviously, and might be down in an hour, but been a striker’s tournament so far, and only a fiver.