Scottish Independence II: The Bloodening

The main bad point of a new indyref is what do you debate? There’s literally no certainties whatsoever, nothing to base a plan on for either side. It would just be chaos based on rhetoric and identitiy, and if you thought the first one was ugly, then…

Could Scotland leave the UK before Brexit and still be a member of the EU?

Of course if the UK then doesn’t leave the EU then it might have been for nothing (if the main point of independence this time is for Scotland to stay in EU).

Think I said this in the last thread but I was very very anti independence first time around. Now, I’m not so sure, and would be close to swaying toward voting yes (presuming I moved home in time). The fact that I’ve been swayed so much following Brexit makes me think that I won’t be the only one…

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Can’t see any scenario where the UK doesn’t leave the EU.

I’m still hoping for

a) some legal block
or
b) common sense prevailing and everyone going ‘this is a fucking terrible idea, don’t know what we were thinking, let’s just forgot it lads yeh?’

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The standard response last time was that Scotland would have to apply for membership itself once independent and go through all the necessary hoops. Whether that would still apply (probably if it’s the actual legal position, although various people disputed it) is probably about as uncertain as anything else.

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Agreed. Polling on the matter at time of writing suggests no significant movement in favour of independence, since the vote in 2014 . Furthermore I don’t think there’s much appetite in Scotland for a 2nd referendum (saw some polling on it once) so Sturgeon’s sort of stuck with what she can do. Any failed 2nd IndyRef will be fatal.

I just think that the consequences of overriding the referendum result could be worse for politics in the UK than Brexit. Fucked either way, I suppose.

I dunno. I think whether it would have been ok or not would have depended entirely on the effect independence had on the general election - i.e. if there was a backlash against the Tories for ‘losing’ Scotland, or in typical English faction the political right was bolstered by an increase in harsh ‘anti-scot’ rhetoric. I know this sounds cruel and is kinda controversial, but I think the best thing would have been for the indyref to have never happened in the first place. Or at least for it to have taken place after the GE (which obviously the SNP were intentionally avoiding, because a Labour govt decreases the likelihood of people voting for independence).

Economically the case for leaving is weaker than in 2014 qv. the most recent GERS figures. This doesn’t seem to trouble the Nats. Although tbf this is mainly just through my reading of Wings Over Scotland on twitter who’s never one for letting facts ruin an argument.

But what if you can’t minimise the damage of leaving?
Things are already getting shite and all we’ve had is an opinion poll based a lies and misinformation that if you did it again today would prob be remain (I saw something that 6% of leave voters regret the way they voted).
If governments have an obligation to do what’s best for the country I don’t see how they can go ahead with it.

(I realise this is more brexit talk than Scotland talk and should be in other thread.).

Hello guys,

I find it difficult to support a nationalist cause.

It’s a ‘no’ from me, but I don’t get a vote :kissing_smiling_eyes:

excited for

:poop:

:grinning:

Also another option is to make more concessions to the idea of Devo Max this time around. Seems fair enough to me, although it doesn’t ideologically cohere with the reasoning around holding a 2nd IndyRef post Brexit (i.e. the idea of a Sovereign Scotland being taken out of the EU against her will…)

If public opinion swayed massively towards remain, a second referendum could probably be conducted without too much fallout. However, I’m fairly sure that if you’d have conducted that referendum at almost any time since we joined the EU it would have been a close call, so I don’t see that happening. The only thing that could change it is major economic depression and that likely won’t come until after the exit is sealed.

They can easy just go: it was advisory, it’s a representative democracy, what people voted for wasn’t clear, people didn’t understand how the EU works, could split the UK, will fuck the economy etc etc. So many reasons not to and no reasons to. Point that out to people (as should have been done in the first place) and they could pull it off. Plus 37% of electorate, many people who should have had a vote (EU citizens, UK citizens abroad not given one), will effect the young people most who voted remain or not yet able to vote etc.

To give in to the tyranny of a hate fill mob is not democracy.

Absolutely, but there’s no chance of the government actually doing that. If they do

  1. They’ll lose their majority in the HoC - it’ll only take half a dozen or so of the most difficutl brexiters to resign the Tory whip before the government is unable to wield power any longer
  2. A small majority or significant minority of their party’s support will likely splinter away from the party - leaving them facing another decade or two (at least) out of power - no-one’ll trust them to do what they say for a long time, and a lot of people won’t forgive them for bottling Brexit.

Brexit may not be in the nation’s best interests, but it’s certainly in the government’s best interests, so I can’t see much value in putting effort into opposing it all together any longer. Better to accept it’s going to happen and work to force the government into doing so on terms that are less harmful to the UK than the ones they seem to be aiming for.

none of that is untrue but you’re missing the point. if we did that probably about 80% of leave voters and 50% of remain voters would lose any remaining faith in the political system altogether.

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I like the Scots and Scotland and it hurts my feelings that they may not consider us all buddies.
I can understand they may not be happy with UK politics but then I think we are all in the same boat regarding that

While I get what you and colin and xylo are saying if we had a few more people like this: "I'll Say Sorry To My Son": Repentant Leave Voter Chokes Up - LBC
then maybe it wouldn’t be seen as ignoring the will of the people or democracy but as saving the country from disaster and the party who does that won’t be sidelined for the next decade.
I realise this is all straws but it’s all I’ve got to clutch at now.