#58

Economically the case might be weaker now (largely because the oil price has plummeted), but it almost certainly won’t be at the end of Article 50 negotiations.

If the UK is not in a recession already by that point, leaving the EU will cause either a massive recession or a huge increase in government borrowing.

Scotland’s best way out of that will be to gain independence and remain a part of the EU.

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#59

Right, but aren’t Spain going to block Scotland entering the EU to prevent Catalan doing the exact same thing?

#60

They have (as has been pointed out already in the thread), but I think that’s something that will be worked around and a deal struck.

It’s in the EU’s interests to have Scotland remain and I can see a lot of UK-based businesses, institutions and people relocating there.

#62

Sorry, long thread.

I can see how having Scotland in would be useful if there is a serious breakdown in relations between the EU and UK (which I don’t think this is yet), but I’d say it’s more likely to be traded back as a bonus to England as part of negotiations. It all depends on the time frame for the referendum but if it’s short then I’d be surprised if the EU got itself in a position to given even luke warm support to independence, and if its long then I think it will get overtaken by the Brexit negotiation.

I think it’s a great idea, I just don’t think it will happen.

#63

I’d be kinda funny if, over a decade or so, millions of English people relocated north of the border.

Sure the anti-English nationalists would love that.

#65

Post-2014 referendum, @TheWza was in no hurry to have another and got quite exasperated at crybabies who kept banging on about bloody #indyref2 and #Yes2 and the dodgy “All Under One Banner” marching (that mostly seemed to be a RISE/Tommy hangover) and so on.

The most annoying thing was the excruciatingly bad graphics getting shared around.

I get quite exasperated with the harking back to the 2015 GE, too, implying that Milliband was genuinely a PM in waiting and the SNP are somehow to blame for Labour UK being indescribably shit (and Labour in Scotland having been a hollow shell for a decade or more with an inevitable full-on collapse always on the cards).

Although #edstone was funny as fuck.

The deck had obviously been reshuffled, post-Brexit 2016.

So… Article 50 gets invoked in the spring of 2017. Now what?

Well, as the two year period passes and we approach spring 2019 we’ll begin know learn what the deal is likely to be for the UK outside of the EU. And it’ll likely be the EU playing hardball with the UK to bloody it’s nose and prove a point. It may well include overtures from the EU to Scotland about easy continued membership. Or maybe the Tory freaks on charge at the moment will turn out to be negotiators of the millennium. Either way, it’s not difficult to envisage a referendum in Scotland which roughly boils down to a straight choice:

  • continue in the UK
  • continue in the EU

I’d tend to agree that there is no likelihood of Scottish independence occurring from within a UK not in the EU.

So…

…opinion polls blah blah…

…will change when people come to realise the circumstances and the choice they face. As they did in the lead-in to 2014.

But finances…

There was uncertainty about unknowns in 2014. (It was, largely, the currency issue wot won it!) But, as noted, as we approach the grand exit in 2019 things will be lined up and there’ll be a similar degree of knowns and unknowns on the UK and the EU side. And with the recent track record of the UK “stability”. Hmmmmm.

And @GEOFF , I know you love to rag on him, but if you rely on the WoS Twitter feed for anything other than provocation, you’re a crazy man.

Oh and, naturally, I haven’t clicked the link. :v:

One (or two) final things:

Nationalism! Waaah!

^This nonsense proper winds me up when it comes from anyone thinly trying to avoid Godwin who advocates anything other than the ideal of a single worldwide state.

  • Tory Yoons who are against Scottish independence because they want to cling on to a beside of Empire? Fine. I get it. It’s shit, but I get it.
  • Lefty Yoons who are against Scottish independence because they hate “nationalism” and are “internationalists”? Get a grip, mates. “Nurses in Stirling, Swansea AND Swindon”? What about the ones in Stuttgart? Or São Paulo? Why is the political border of the hundred year old United Kingdom and Northern Ireland so sacrosanct? What’s the thing being clung onto here?

And with that tl;dr, I yield (for now). Lunchtime (still, thankfully, governed by the European Working Time Directive) has ended and I must get back to work ( as if I were in the early days of a better nation , natch).

Talk to you soon! :kissing_heart:

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#66

Carlisle would become Calais. Englishmen smuggling themselves into the backs of wagons that have stopped at Todhills for fuel.

#68

gallery_movies-braveheart-mel-gibson.jpg768×1184 98.9 KB

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#69

Really? Why’s that?

#70

Could take issue with a lot of this…

I don’t think anyone would say Labour would have won had the referendum not happened. But, although the caveats with counterfactuals obviously remain, there’s a reasonably good likelihood that, at minimum, the Tories would have been forced into a coalition, giving Dave the exit he desperately wanted (and expected) wrt the brexit referendum.

Unlikely, and this is an issue that wouldn’t be down to the ‘EU’, but largely its member states. Much like with the Brexit deal in general. This is a road we’ve been down before.

I’d still much rather be in the pound, as part of a state with its own central bank, than in the euro. The favourable exchange rate doesn’t mask its hideous deficiencies, particularly for smaller states. And, unlike in 2014, the argument that Scotland could join the EU but keep the pound won’t wash at all this time.

That’s very optimistic. I doubt it’ll bear out.[quote=“TheWza, post:65, topic:7159”]
Lefty Yoons who are against Scottish independence because they hate “nationalism” and are “internationalists”? Get a grip, mates… What’s the thing being clung onto here?
[/quote]

It’s about the material realities of a class-based understanding of society, rather than appealing to principles or ideals (which are largely liberal delusions :smileyfacetongueincheekbutalsokindofserious:)

#71

Armando Inannuci made this exact point in an interview. I imagine there will be quite a few.

#72

that well sounds like a planted call

#73

Without Brexit you would have a point but Scotland benefits a lot from EU subsidy. The creative industries for one will take a big hit in investment. Unless Scotland can get insurances form the UK to match funding I think there will be a good economic case to leave.

Particularly if EU entrance looks likely. Would be very appealing for UK based companies that are thinking of relocating to access the single market.

But what I suspected is that this is just a game to put Scotland and the SNP in a stronger negotiating position within the UK.

#74

Yes my reference to economic case for IndyRef 2 is NOW vis-a-vis the last GERS report.

What the playing field looks like in 2 years time is anyone’s guess. Was just a comment on, at present a) appetite for another referendum (low) and b) appetite for a different outcome (low). In 2019 though - who knows.

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#75

Yeah well up until we know the actual terms of brexit a referendum is premature to say the least

#76

Also about the opinion poll. The public was polling at overwhelmingly pro remain when brexit was announced. By a way larger margin then the current polls on Scottish independence. You can presume how it will be after a campaign and a couple of years. When it’s clear that the subsides and single market are going.

#77

Stockholm Syndrome …is probably the shortest way of summarising.

#78

I was broadly in favour last time round, and I moved from a Hard No to a Defiant Yes.

I am not the same, even when living in England. My friends, most of which were No, have now moved to Yes. Anecdotally, of nine friends, seven of which were all No, seven are now confirmed Yes with two “probably if it keeps getting bad”.

#79

We clearly aren’t fully aligned, and are unlikely to be by the end of this thread, so I’ll not punt us round in circles. But, fair play, you’ve kept it clean and there are a couple of things I’d drag out:

I’d still much rather be in the pound, as part of a state with its own central bank, than in the euro … the argument that Scotland could join the EU but keep the pound won’t wash at all this time

The first bit is an understandable call, but doesn’t cover all options. A standalone currency is an option, albeit a medium-long term one, rather than a straight if the bat one. The second bit is, I think, a straight up falsehood, but I’m prepared to hear or the reasons why not. My understanding is that, as a floated currency, the pound could be used (by Scotland or any other country). As could the US dollar. But I accept that the ability to have a say in UK central bank matters is likely to be low-to-nil from outside the UK.

It’s about the material realities of a class-based understanding of society…

Are these hampered by an independent Scotland?
Are they helped by the UK?

#80

The currency thing is wrt the EU and the euro. iirc the argument for being able to keep the pound whilst being an independent EU member was that Scotland would be a successor state and therefore not new, meaning that the obligations for new member states would not apply (correct me if i’m wrong). If the UK is out of the EU I don’t think that could work.

That’s the question. Things have obviously changed a lot since 2014, and I’m not now unconditionally against an independent Scotland (simply because I don’t know how I could possibly be for or against anything like that in this current uncertainty). In 2014 it would have been hampered by an independent Scotland, imo. Now I don’t know, although I’ll still remain sceptical.