Summer 2018 Brexit Thread

Only 2 realistic scenarios are a people’s vote and remain (or near enough), or no vote and no deal. Latter is looking much more likely

Yeah you may well be right. I remember back in 2015 when the referendum was being chatted about in the context of the General Election campaign and good old (I think) Dominic Grieve was saying the pledge should be for 2 referendums - one for in/out and another on the terms of the deal. I thought that a bit far-fetched at the time but, y’know, here we are.

she can’t extend Article 50 beyond March 2019 because April 2019 is when EU Tax avoidance reform kicks in

/ tin hat

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No deal is easiy to imagine now i fear.

I can just imagine the Sun column by JRM in front of a union flag backdrop asking people to dig in and use the spirit that got us through the blitz. All this as the country basically stopped functioning. All for the greater good.

I’m not sure if they’ve done this before, but The Mail were breaking down the possibilities of a no-deal Brexit and framing it in terms of positives and negatives.

Negative: You can’t go on holiday any more
Postive: Control
Negative: No more banana imports. Food riots
Positive: Sovereignty
Negative: Economic collapse
Positive: £350m a week for the NHS (£350k a week in 2016 prices).

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There’s nothing more calculated to make people dig their heels in than a politician telling them that their views are ‘wrong’ followed by an explanation which implies they were stupid to decide as they did.

It’s why Remain failed in the first place, because David fucking Cameron went around the country telling people what to do, having previously never given a stuff about what people outside the City of London thought. There was a big feeling of resentment in previously neglected parts of the country and they would have voted against whatever he was hawking round whether it was In, Out or Shake It All About.

A Second Referendum is unbelievably patronising and wrongheaded. It will never deliver what the Remainer/Soft Brexit brigade want.

We can all agree that the country should never have been allowed to get into this mess but there are only two options, the devastation of an idealogical Hard Brexit or a decision to halt the whole process.

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what do you reckon I should get ?

  • Swedish passport
  • Irish passport
  • German passport

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This ^ Have a good friend who’s an economics journalist at Bloomberg and they have done a huge amount of research into the likely result of a second referendum. Their conclusion was that there was absolutely no evidence to suggest that a second referendum would not go the same way as the first. We haven’t left yet, so the economic realities of not being in the EU are not being fully felt (even though there has been a noticeable slowdown), and the evidence suggested that people on both sides had, if anything, become more entrenched.

The time for a second referendum would be 2-3 years after we have properly left - so after the end of the transition period expiring 31 Dec 2020. The economic and procedural consequences would then be more clear. If people remain ideologically committed to a hard Brexit after years of economic chaos and mass job losses, then fair enough, but you’d suspect that the number of these people would have dwindled considerably. The amount of long term damage done to the economy and Britain’s general standing by then will be incalculable, though. Really don’t think this is hyperbole.

Really hope this is wrong, but hard Brexit seems the only realistic outcome now, unless by some miracle the country decides it can’t actually go through with it. As the headbangers in the Tory party appear to be calling the entirety of the shots though, this does not appear at all likely.

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If only that were an option

I still don’t see how a hard brexit is possible. What about the Irish and Gibraltar borders? What about the collapse of food and medicine suppliers? What about power outages? How are the most vulnerable going to cope with these things? Care homes and hospitals? It will be a disaster and people will die. Are our politicians really going to allow that to happen? That really isn’t what most people want.

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Not really sure what the Liberal Democrats are playing at here have they just given up?

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Hard borders in Ireland and Gibraltar and the press telling us that people dying to gain sovereignty harks back to the great days of 1945

But that would go against the Good Friday agreement I believe? And I can’t see Spain allowing a hard border with Gibraltar. (I wonder how many MPs think it’s an island and therefore not a problem!)

Faron:

We clearly called it wrong, as did Labour. I take full responsibility for my part. The Tories don’t deserve any luck, I’m so sorry I inadvertently granted them some.

Huh?

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so much to wade through there

In an email to the Guardian Farron admitted misjudging the vote. He said: “I was authorised to be absent due to a pre-arranged engagement away from the parliamentary estate.

:thinking::thinking:

In the end nobody expected the vote to be as close as it was – I’d actually cancelled the engagement earlier on, but then uncancelled because we expected Labour to abstain and the government to win by miles

what a gutless sack of shit

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The good Friday agreement will be ripped up. Might just give Gibraltar to Spain

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“We expected Labour to abstain”

I mean, that’s just lies. Labour were always going to vote against ERG amendments. I appreciate elsewhere he admits he cocked up by going to his talk, but stop trying to blame others for your mistakes.

I guess we won’t need Gibraltar as a tax haven once we’ve made the whole of the UK one.
Beautiful sovereignty.

Good reasoning. The upcoming Swedish election polling is not looking too favourite though

I doubt a Swexit is on the cards but who knows