The Scottish Politics and Independence Thread 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

Don’t know how good a tactic declaring the next general election a proxy referendum is. I mean, I imagine it works from an SNP point of view, I’m sure they’ll do very well.

But it just also seems anti-democratic – I get that the argument will be that the UK government have left no other option for people to express their will, but at the same time I don’t think it’s right to remove (or act as if you’re removing) a general election from people and replacing it with a referendum. Particularly this next general election that gets more critical with every passing week.

I don’t know how that plays out.

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The SNP are in an odd position l guess, they dominate Scottish politics in terms of seats but - FPTP strikes again - they rarely win the popular vote in absolute terms. 2019 GE was 45% to them and 55% to unionist parties, the 2021 Holyrood was closer to 50/50 but on a lower turnout.

Think they’re pivoting to the idea that it isn’t enough to dominate Holyrood and Scottish Westminster seats, they need to so indelibly link themselves to the idea of an independent Scotland that they can claim every vote for them is clearly a proxy vote for independence and if their share tops 50% it becomes undeniable.

(I say this as someone who doesn’t really understand the point of voting for the SNP in Westminster elections except outside of party loyalty. They’re never going to form a Government or have any real impact on one.)

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So people should just vote for Labour, is that what you’re suggesting? Because they can get fucked if they think they’re getting my vote again any time soon. I vote SNP nationally because they actually oppose the Tories.

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I’m saying people should vote for whoever they want to form a UK Government, because that is the purpose of the election.

You are, of course, entitled to your own view on this.

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So i should vote for mick lynch even though he’s not on the ballot?

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I cant find a base image to use but please imagine I’d done that Jeb Bush wins every state meme but with Mick and the UK

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Are people seriously still into the idea of a one-off referendum on secession on indeterminate terms?

It just baffles me that there isn’t more talk or support for an in principle referendum (I’d vote yes if eligible) and a ratification referendum (I’d vote according to how acceptable the terms were).

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Anyone else been following Brexit?

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John Crace

As a voter, I want a ratification referendum, but there’s an obvious strategic flaw with that from the independence movement’s point of view isn’t there, in terms of the incentive for the UK government to act in bad faith between the two votes.

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they’re going to act in max “bad faith” either way

this way would also give more of a mandate to keep going back to the electorate, and destroy all the “oh there would be too much uncertainty” etc. arguments

(obvs this also reveals how much of this comes down to how global financial markets would respond - if the main argument against the most democratically robust procedure is that it would shake the economy, then it does say a lot about how antidemocratic the whole political order is)

Not really following this line of thought.

Obviously you don’t vote directly for who forms the government. But, obviously, in England, you kind of actually do (especially whilst the Lib Dems are what they currently are). But whilst there’s an SNP bloc of MPs, the situation in Scotland is slightly different

It’s entirely conceivable that the SNP could end up playing a role in a confidence and supply scenario that creates a Labour government instead of a Tory one. (I can’t envisage a formal 2010 style coalition at all - much more likely that Lab would prefer minority gov, I think). So there’s one reason for voting SNP. It’s an outside shot, but it’s a legit reason.

Also, I’m just never voting for Scottish Labour ( in its current clueless iteration - the exception being when I put them one rung above the Tories in a ranked preferential vote).

Where the option exists, I’ll happily vote for ScotGreens over SNP, especially in the case where it’s a safe SNP seat, their safe lead needs trimming, and there’s a chance of elevating the Green up above the Lab candidate.

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I put bad faith in scare quotes btw cause in my experience people on here don’t know what this term means but use it anyway

My tactics too.

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I get the logic for a ratification referendum. Would’ve been fine with it for Brexit.

But the practicalities of getting even one seem pretty insurmountable at present. As apparently the single referendum in 2014 is the definitive decision that remains entirely valid and should not be questioned at any point in the foreseeable future.

well… good luck persuading 50%+ of the electorate what they’re voting for is going to be negotiable and actually achievable

Definitely have nothing about using the GE as a proxy ref. Very faught with all manner of pitfalls.

Has Sturgeon explicitly said that the plan is to go with total GE votes for pro-independence parties v votes for unionist parties?

Putting aside the issues with that not necessarily being a simple calculation… I wonder if there’s any mileage in the obviously even dodgier suggestion that is done by totting up pro-indy v pro-Union seats in the first instance.

A kind of sacrificial Plan C (part i). Which obviously wouldn’t be acceptable to any Unionist. But it could be mooted so as to be able to, yet again, respond by asking “Come on, then, what’s the actual way out of this shitshow?”.

Pretty absurd that we are where we are, and I’m even suggesting this as having even the slightest chance of being part of the discourse.

Maybe request a referendum with a different question: Repeal Devolution v Independence? (The don’t back down, double down option.)

What a mess.

Indeed.

Which is why I think the prospectus needs to be as bold as is possible in designing out negotiation with the UK, the expectation of co-operation from the UK, or any sort of good faith engagement by the UK. And where it can’t be designed out, price in the worst case scenario.

Very much easier said than done. But leaving anything at the stage of ‘we’d negotiate the best deal’ is always gonna be exploited mercilessly by Unionist FUD peddlars. It’s quite clear that the UK is very happy to stubbornly self-sabotage to incredible degrees. That kind of madness needs left well alone and given a wide berth.

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On a train with some Scottish “expats” saying they wouldn’t vote for independence because half the population are “junkies”

But they kind of want it to happen because of how catastrophic it’ll be “for them”

Also blaming “the algorithms” for how “polarised” society is

Just all round top notch discourse

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How does it get used on here, then? The Wikipedia opening paragraph matches how I think of it

Bad faith (Latin: mala fides ) is a sustained form of deception which consists of entertaining or pretending to entertain one set of feelings while acting as if influenced by another.[1] It is associated with hypocrisy, breach of contract, affectation, and lip service.[2] It may involve intentional deceit of others, or self-deception.