#617

I agree it will make absolutely no difference to his base whatsoever. His core base alone is probably not enough though.

The best hope is that it’s more like the Hilary emails Comey letter (although this is obviously further out from election day) and is factored in to the minds of those still undecided. They’re maybe about 5% of likely voters based on polling aggregates - they must still be weighing up something if they’re yet to decide in this climate and if they even contribute to a 1% shift in a state like Florida or Pennsylvania then this could be significant. Nobody knows whether tax evasion will be celebrated as much by swing voters as his core, especially for those coming to terms with paying significant amounts more tax personally than their billionaire president. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t.

Anyone looking for a big swing is going to be disappointed, but it’s more about increments imo, and increments might be enough.

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#618

well on that basis then, the messaging on trump should be him calling the military losers, over and over, 30ft billboards in every state.

“he’s avoiding tax” is a gift to him. libertarians all want to do that.

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#619

worth remembering that our ‘one nation’ torys are seen as soft left in america, anything further than that is socialism. the idea of an anti government man is even appealing to a lot of people working in government

#620

Trump’s base is irrelevant, they’re not the crucial demographic in this election. If you think it won’t affect the undecideds that’s different because they are the crucial demographic but focusing on what his base thinks has long ceased being pointless

On a side note, people demanding to know why Trump still has 40-45% of voters even after 200K coronavirus deaths in the US should check out how popular Andrew Cuomo still is

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#621

i see trumps base as being far, far broader than people give credit, and one that’s grown significantly

#622

I agree it’s probably demographically broader than people generally think, but I’d be surprised if it’s really grown in the past three years, at least not at a rate to replenish those who voted for him but now aren’t fussed.

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#623

Sorry, not buying this one at all - if he wins again it’s a replica of 2016, low Dem turnout and narrow electoral college victory (in terms of winning vote margins in states I mean). The idea his base has grown since 2016 isn’t borne out at all by any evidence (not least his low approval rating which has barely moved in four years).

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#624

Watched the full story on this last night, but is it wrong that I don’t actually have that much of a problem with this? In my mind it strikes me as hyper-focused negative campaigning, and while that’s unsavoury and shit, negative campaigns are hardly a new development in politics.

I mean, if they have data that was collected in a dodgy way then that’s a big deal, and the fact that the people they were trying to put off were black is resonant with the actual voter suppression that happens at every single US election…

…but they tried to deter those voters by posting adverts with videos of Clinton calling African-Americans “Superpredators”. That wasn’t fake news - it was shit that she said in real life. Maybe if the Dems hadn’t picked a candidate who didn’t appeal to African-Americans, and had then done very little to actually try and get their vote, then they might have done a little better?

Feel like a dick for thinking like this, maybe I’m not seeing the wood for the trees, IDK.

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#625

Nah, it was definitely the Russians and Jill Stein voters :grinning:

#626

genuinely believe that in addition to white non-college males and religious right he’s picked up third-way voters too for his libertarian streak. i still think he’ll win. i don’t disagree that the dems picking a handsy corpse is a large factor in that.

#627

Can’t believe I was one of those people.

#628

Also, imho there will be a lot of voters that the Dems can dissuade from voting, and the “Lincoln Project” ghouls are probably the right people for this particular job.

A lot of the people who were pissed off and thought “fuck it, we’ll try Trump” will probably think he’s not worth the hassle a second time around. He’s done fuck-all for many of the groups he said he would, and is much more prone to negative campaigning this time round than he was in 2016.

#629

FAO all: yeah I know

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#630

He has absolutely delivered on what those 40% want as well hasn’t he: three very conservative supreme court nominees who will be in post for decades, packing the other courts with young conservatives, ACA and Roe v Wade possibly getting overturned next term, deregulation, telling international agencies to go fuck themselves, riding straight through every inconvenient convention that he’s told he can’t, sticking it to liberal elites and just generally creating an impression of America 'first and only’at every opportunity.

It’s no surprise they’re happy to dismiss the 200k as collateral damage who were old/weak/feckless/would have died of something else anyway, when they’re getting everything else they want. Most of the surprise at his support never dropping like GWB’s did totally misses the mark and their motivations.

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#631

this is the thing. he is not having to work hard to tempt moderate republicans on any level. even those who hate him do so because he’s doing what they want too loudly and with no class

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#632

Nipple piercings are quite cool

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#633

Will there be a place to watch it all tomorrow morning?

#634

Should be able to live stream it from the CNN website, and possibly other US news channels as well.

Starts at 2 AM in the UK.

#635

Don’t know if this is what you’re getting at or not, but Cuomo’s comms have been second to none through the corona thing. So much better when there’s someone saying ‘if the data starts to look like this in the future, then we’ll do this’.

#636

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think it’s stuff like this, he is obviously a conniving slimeball who killed people through negligence and got away with it.

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