#1701

For all the chat of the polls being wrong last time, he was within the margin of error in most of them on the day itself. Not the case this time, he’s miles out. Not saying they’re not wrong, just saying.

#1702

Bookmaking odds are a very poor indicator of election outcomes.

The polls support this view

image
image750×542 161 KB

Someone will mention 2016 in response

#1703

BuT hEr PoLl NuMbERs

I reckon the big wet orange boy has lost it too by the way

#1704

I’m starting to feel a glimmer of hope that Trump might not win and I’m annoying myself because it’s the hope that kills you.

9 Likes
#1705

“joe biden is a corrupt rapist and his dipshit son only got that job cos of his daddy”: reckless qanon conspiracism.

“the russians are giving temporary brain damage to heroic CIA agents with secret directed energy weapons”: longread article in GQ, other respectable types nod approvingly.

i cannot imagine that a country with two diametrically opposed groups of conspiratorial crackpots, one blue and one red, both in control of their own highly influential media and political institutions, is heading anywhere good. both camps are devolving into something like new age cults.

#1706

Funny how when that’s Biden it’s bad, but when it’s Trump it’s fine

I mean, it’s not funny, it’s literally what Goebbels said to do in terms of marketing authoritarian regimes. But yk, ‘funny’

1 Like
#1707

We have three different kids’ books of incredible women throughout history. Obviously not long details on each but it’s still got inaccuracies in it like assuming Boudicca actually existed or claiming that Rosa Parks had no idea she would do something so important that day. I assume there are many many more I don’t even clock.

2 Likes
#1708

i’ve been reading quite a lot about the history of religion in america and how manifest destiny influenced the development of spirituality there. evangelicalism, mormonism, scientology are like expressions of a country confident in itself, fat on the bountry of never ending expansion. qanon and russiagate are becoming articles of faith, like the seeds of new religions too, even if russiagaters don’t frame it that way, but they are what happens when the land runs out and the collapse accelerates. i am on to something here.

2 Likes
#1709

You can see that trend in popular culture a bit too. Look at the middle of last century (well, more the third quarter I guess). I don’t think a song that sounded like I Am… I Said could have come out of any other country, it’s stuffed to the gills with the stolid confidence of an empire that looks towards the sunset with a Clint Eastwood eye. So much American myth that grew up from the 50s to roughly the end of the 80s seemed like that, pretty much impermeable. It’s not so true anymore.

Robert Evans talks about QAnon as a religion (I’m sure he’s not alone in that), and the reasoning deployed is very sound

1 Like
#1710

qanon is much more overtly religious for sure. they have better developed foundational myths, articles of belief, even incantations e.g. wwg1wga. so it’s way further along than the russiagate-types, but give it time. especially if trump wins (i think it’s Joe’s to lose personally), i think we’ll see the “liberal class” pivot full bore into overt veneration of the CIA, russia as satan, and natsec state. It’s interesting to contrast which figures and institutions the two groups have chosen as their totems, and look at how it reflects the broader political and cultural influences working on both groups.

i need to learn more sociology and philosophy to hone this take, i think. you got any good recommendations for reading material, anything to dive into about qanon, mueller fans, whatever?

#1712

Yeah, there’s a real sense of a return to a polarising fervour last seen in the days of McCarthyism, but more tribal and fractious than that. Very intense and very unnerving.

Sadly, I don’t really have time to read anything at the moment, so I can’t help with that. I went looking for some qanon background stuff a while ago, but I couldn’t find anything particularly good (I guess there’s a lot of chaff thrown up around it due to its presence in the news cycle and also the fact that its genesis is online, makes it messy to grab the trail). If anyone has any good resources I’d also be up for linking etc

1 Like
#1713

if i find anything good i’ll whack it in here

2 Likes
#1714

Saw Sanders suggest the polling day initial count might favour Trump, then we’ll see him claiming that it’s being stolen from him when the postal vote numbers reverse that over the following days

#1715

Think that first couple of days will be where the Republicans will try something if they genuinely have designs on it - declare Trump the winner, shut down the polls, say none of the other votes count because whatever, take it to the courts and use that 3-6 they have now.

As said I don’t think they will, because the Republican higher-ups aren’t invested in Trump. But it’s there for them if they choose.

#1716

Just got back from the 9/11 memorial museum. There’s a lot to think about, but i can’t help but make the comment that there’s no mention at all of the afghan victims of the response to 9/11, and by this point there are many hundreds of thousands of them. The consequences of the immediate reaction to 9/11 are still taking place. Obviously we need Biden to win but even when he does America is still going to be a gross country. Can’t help but feel that though he’s a new kind of beast, Trump has done nowhere near the damage that Bush had, although I don’t know enough about thier respective domestic policies to be sure about that judgement.

2 Likes
#1717

Qanon Anonymous podcast is pretty good.

2 Likes
#1718

I think it’s highly dubious to assume the Supreme Court will support anything less than an obvious Trump victory TBH. There’s a gulf of difference between hating on abortion and stuff, and actually seeking to call the US elections into question.

#1719

The conservative judges all understand that they were elevated to that position in order to support an ideological project (in a way the liberals do not). If they are told by McConnell to throw an election result out they will.

It’s a drastic step, really one of the last in something the Republicans have been working towards for a long time now, and I don’t think they’re ready to take it just yet. But they could. The Democrats can’t and won’t stop them.

#1720

We are all predicting so none of us really know, but I can’t see this happening. It would be an absolute collapse of the checks and balances, and basically of the democratic system, if the SC were to ignore the outcomes of the electoral system

#1721

I think if the Dem choice were Bernie I’d believe it.

But Biden is very much the ideological choice, surely?