And the fact that, although there aren’t a lot of KM, he refuses to improve his TT’ing. Think it’s quite exciting to have the TTT on stage 2. Bardet, Pinot And Dan Martin could find themselves with time to make up before they’ve started.
All the TTT does is play to the strength of the strongest teams. For all this talk of it being the most open tour since 2012, Ineos could be out of sight by stage 3 (bit of license here but you get the drift). The likes of UEA, BM, AG2R, FDJ could be cut adrift straight away.
Sagan will probably win green, but I don’t think he will win many stages with Groenewegen, Ewan and Viviani all riding. Quite a bit will depend on how many of those guys can be arsed to ride all the way to Paris
He will grind it out and get intermediates, plus do well on classic-style lumpy stages like stages 3, 5 and 9. Though in the latter I think he will have tough competition from the likes of Alaphillipe, van Avermaet (who’ll be desperate for wins after a poor season), van Aert, and Niki Terpstra who’ll be under pressure to perform for his new team on home soil