My prediction which will no doubt look stupid in November:
Biden is the Democrat candidate and beats Trump despite being even worse than Hillary Clinton because of sexism and just enough people thinking ‘fuck it, I’ll vote for him because he’s not Trump’. Various celebs/Twitter personalities/pundits who have spent the last four years screaming about Trump now decide everything is OK again and stop paying attention. Biden unsurprisingly goes on to be a terrible President, the Democrats lose the House again in 2022 or whenever because of the usual apathy and in 2024/2028 another racist Republican moron becomes President.
(more likely Biden is the candidate and manages to fuck it up but I’ll stick with my even more pessimistic prediction above)
Oh yeah, but that’s him winning the election, not winning the popular vote I meant. There’s not likely to be many new people doing any of what you mention. And I’ll be amazed if any Democrat, even Biden, does worse than Hillary Clinton did.
(sorry I’m quibbling now, the popular vote means fuck all in the end anyway aside from highlighting the terrible electoral college)
dunno, based on UK 2015 and 2019 i just have in my mind an image of everyone saying it’s gonig to be a close race and them him just somehow doing better than last time. preparing myself for this eventuality in advance.
idk, these are very internet-flavoured reasons. Of course his hog base are going to continue voting for him, but that’s not large enough to win outright (and like Leavers is shrinking all the time).
A lot of it is simply going to boil down to how good the economy is and how effective/inspiring the Democrat candidate is. If it’s Biden I expect him to win, but just barely and given his modus operandi and how stacked the judiciary is that’d be a presidency paralysed from birth. If it’s Sanders all bets are off pretty much.
Worth remembering that Trumps 2016 numbers were barely higher than mccain’s in 2012. Republican vote is going to be basically the same, the election boils down to the dems having a candidate who can mobilise support effectively, get a strong ground game and get ‘non voters’ out on election day. Obama could, Hillary couldn’t. Would have more faith in sanders than Biden to do so personally
Sanders is the gamble candidate in this respect, because he’s relying upon parts of the population who don’t usually vote. However 2016 demonstrated that the current Democratic coalition is falling apart thanks to disillusionment particularly amongst the working class, and Sanders represents a fresh and potentially potent approach.
Worth remembering that the one time an American president bent slightly, momentarily to the left, he basically became emperor for life. ADDENDUM: He only became president thanks to the worst economic crisis the US has ever known. Again, whether the Republicans manage to keep that car huffing along on fumes for another year will be crucial
I’m mentally preparing myself for him to win again, likely losing the popular vote.
Regarding the economy, my aunt just told my dad she took a drive across Pennsylvania - it’s still nothing but Trump signs everywhere, even though these are the people he’s actively punishing with his tariffs and other policies. It’s a cult full of proud-to-be-ignorant racists.
The Democrats need to choose Bernie and start appealing to the people who didn’t vote with policies that help them, rather than to “moderate” white swing voters who don’t respond to reality or logic whatsoever. Every one of those that I know voted for Trump (or Gary Johnson, because they’re such independent thinkers!) even though Hillary was the definition of a moderate. The only shot we have is Bernie. Nobody is going to turn out to vote for Biden, and Trump will destroy him in the debates (not with facts of course, but Biden doesn’t seem prepared to be able to handle Trump’s method).
(And looking down the road, why on earth would a promise of returning to the time and conditions that led to Trump not lead to another Trump in 4 years? They absolutely cannot pick Biden.)
The anti-Bernie bias from MSNBC and CNN drives me insane. A lot of parents I know, including my mom sadly, who park themselves in front of those channels all day “just don’t like Bernie” even though he theoretically matches up with their values. They’ve “heard some bad things.” Everyone’s minds are being rotted.
Most importantly though it’s not going to be a fair fight with gerrymandering and voter suppression, which the Republicans have announced they’re going on the offensive with and nobody bats a fucking eye. I want to move to Canada so badly.