#546

(sorry if that’s already been posted)

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#547

(Also I tried to post it starting at like 6:12 or something, but the whole thing is good too)

#548

This Vince Foster stuff’s interesting, eh?

#549

Trump’s going to win, isn’t he? Guardian readers who ride fold-up bikes can tell you otherwise, but they’re wrong. The fucker’s going to win.

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#550

yeah, I had a similar gut feeling about Brexit as I do now about him winning. I was right about Brexit.
The entertainment value of the next 4 years will increase anyway. Can’t say i’m much looking forward to nuclear winter/being drafted.

#551

In practice he won’t really do that much. Look how much Obama’s been stymied by congress and he’s only trying to get stuff past the Republicans. If Trump does try and do any of the fucking lunatic stuff he’s suggesting, he’ll have to get it past the opposition AND his own side.

What it will do is give license for some very damaged people to feel vindicated in their beliefs (the fucking KKK endorsed him today FFS!) and it’ll create a fucking toxic atmosphere and divide their society, but hey we’re a fine one to talk over here right now.

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#552

Not unless he can win both Florida and North Carolina. He’s got a chance but it’s getting really boring seeing people online freaking out he’s going to win based on 2016 being rubbish in general and gut feelings and Brexit.

1 Like
#554

I’m going more off the huge drop in odds over the last couple of weeks, his undoubted momentum and the purported low turnout of the minority groups who might well make the difference. Also think the polls will be more pointless this time round than any other.

#555

Why will the polls be useless this time when they were very reliable in 2008/2012 plus midterms and the primaries this year?

#556

What stuff is that?

#557

Because i think there will be more disaffected voters than ever before, and more people voting for the wrong reasons. Not sure there’s ever been a more divisive candidate than Trump. Sort of like over here with UKIP or the BNP beforehand, you obviously get your unapologetic voters, but i expect they’ll be quite a big closet vote in his favour as well, and several factors could yet see a big swing in his favour. I think Trump will win. I’m not one of these people who particularly gives a shit, but if i had a pound on either result at the minute that’s where it’d go.

#558

Article about how there’s a weird little cottage industry in FYROM for pro-Trump websites to get advertising money.

#559

Nah. She’s going to win. If she wins Nevada it’s basically gg Trump, and from what I gather she’s pulled out to such a commanding lead in early voting that it’s close to locked up. Bear in mind that tracking polls and the 538 model etc don’t take early voting into account.

If she does win NV he needs to pick up CO or PA, which she’s lead in by a few points all year, while holding on to his own coinflip states, FL and NC in particular. Florida is still very close and if she does just a little better than expected the whole thing will be over very quickly.

She also has a huge, very well organised GOTV campaign - providing buses to take people to the polls, especially in places where people might be less likely to vote, calling up everyone they’ve spoken to in the last two years and checking that they’re voting and persuading them to go vote if they haven’t. They’re pouring a ton of ad money into the swing states and their weaker firewall states. Trump’s version of this is telling his Twitter followers ‘HEY GO VOTE FOR ME #MAGA’. This stuff matters.

Also, a ton of the electorate has voted already. 34% of everyone who’s gonna vote will have already done so by Nov 8. A lot of that voting was before this stupid FBI fuckup, when she was crushing him by 8 points. Again, this isn’t reflected in the prediction models. There’s no real reason to think that there’s millions of closet Trump voters out there except for paranoia.

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#560

Thank you for making me feel much much better

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#561

Good post. Nice to have it laid out in digestible terms by someone whose understanding of it’s better than mine.

My anticipate-the-worst-at-all-times approach to sport and gambling’s clearly affecting my judgement of these things…or maybe it’s just these dire times, idk.

#562

It’s because we’ve been dealt sucker punches by polls in this country repeatedly over the last few years. We now expect the worst. However typically government polling in the States is much more accurate than ours.

1 Like
#563

Clinton’s chance of winning keeps going up a bit then down a bit. This morning she went up to 68%, now she’s back to 65%. She seems to be oscillating up and down the 60s.

Bit precarious as all those swing states (especially Florida and North Carolina) keep changing colour. I think the Democrats should just spend the rest of their time and money there, as those states are crucial and seem to be switching very narrowly to Trump by default when Clinton isn’t making speeches there.

#564

Really good explainer of the Clinton email thing

2 Likes
#565

Spot on that is. Just hope she still wins, can’t afford a Brexity Trump. No wonder she’s been so secretive though, she’s been hounded since day one. On top of that people seem to forget the ‘deleted’ 22 million Bush emails.

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#567

1.No
2.Kaine or Pence would stand