UK Politics Thread April 2024: No-one wins

Let’s get April kicked off with a ‘megapoll’ of 15,000 people using a multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) process to model constituency-level results.

GB seat predictions (change from 2019 GE in brackets):
Labour 468 (+265)
Conservatives 98 (-267)
SNP 41 (-7)
Liberal Democrats 22 (+11)
Plaid Cymru 2 (-2)

Conservatives wiped out in Scotland and Wales.

Reform win no seats but beat the Tories to second place behind Labour in 7 seats, with an overall vote share of 8.5%, just behind the Liberal Democrats on 10.4%.

If this result were to be repeated in a general election scenario, it would be the worst historical Tory defeat that the country has ever seen. Their lowest previous result in terms of seats was in 1997, where the party won 165 seats - 67 more than under this scenario.

As it stands currently, we find that under this extreme scenario, the Conservatives would be able to up their current seat count by over 50% to 150, while Labour’s seat count would go down to 422. This would mean that the Conservatives would win back 46 of the seats lost to Labour, and 7 of the seats projected to be won by the Lib Dems if Reform were to stand in all constituencies.

Portillo moments?

Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Home Secretary James Cleverly and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps would all lose their seats.

Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch looks likely to retain her seat, along with former home secretary Suella Braverman and ex-immigration minister Robert Jenrick.

In Sunak’s new Richmond and Northallerton seat, … he has just a 2.4% lead over Labour, while Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has just a 1% margin over the Liberal Democrats in his new Godalming and Ash seat.

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As depressing as Labour are, horse these moments into me :heart_eyes:

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Those getting booted (possibly also Sunak and Hunt), with Badenoch, Braverman, and Jenrick being the surviving dregs (and providing the new leader) would be quite something.

The fear, though, would be that Starmer would happily see that as giving him room to continue being a centre-right wetwipe cop.

Also the Tory ‘moderates’ losing their seats and badenoch and Braverman keeping them sets a hell of a future precedent (which we already know is coming tbf)

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Trying to get myself into the right headspace to appreciate the coming Labour government. They’re promising nothing, people will vote based on that promise, and they will almost certainly deliver nothing. Which would make them easily the most consistent and honest government of my lifetime. So that’s nice I guess.

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And given no alternatives are allowed, a very ugly looking government towards the end of the decade after the voters have dined consistently on Keith for a few years.

Starmer is being “pragmatic” to look sensible to the powers that be, but is basically Ed Miliband but more convincing when he talks about football. Once in government, he will push the Overton window further to the left than we expect, and will use the leverage of the threat from the left to make “concessions” to that strand once in power; this will include things like: better vibes in Downing Street, jokier PMQs like how they used to be, and kinder, gentler flights to Rwanda.

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Reckon everyone will turn on Kieth quite quickly once they realise he’s an empty skin suit

Choice of ginger ale, maybe even a cheeky sparkling wine, instead of just apple juice.

Hark at Jeremy Corbyn over here

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First Half GIF

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This poll doesn’t take into account tactical voting - once you factor that in, Jeremy Hunt is toast

Yeah, I think I’m ready to finally concede that there’s absolutely no coming back from this now for the Tories. Over a year polling below 30% and that bit about them getting fewer seats than in '97 even if Reform step aside.

Think people aren’t factoring in how squishy voting blocs have become over the past decade. People don’t feel loyalty towards political parties anymore because the communal basis for it no longer exists - and because politicians are no longer producing the material basis that would engender it. Thatcher basically bought a huge swathe of voters for life by selling off the nation’s housing stock to them - those people are all shuffling off this mortal coil now. What has any Tory leader actually given anyone over the past 15 years? What is Keith offering us now?

Point is even though I expect the Tories to be wiped off the map this year, they’ll be back in force in four years’ time.

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And as usual, I’m saying - under who? Prime Minister Robert Jenrick?

The real issue they have is there’s only going to be melts and dweebs left.

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Kier Starmie is a massive dweeb that nobody likes! Doesn’t matter so long as people are sick enough of the incumbents.

Sorry, just don’t buy it. Any rump Tory party led by these people is just going to double down on culture war stuff, because they’ve got nothing else, and it doesn’t play with a large chunk of traditional Tory voters.

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I’d be happy to have a gentleman’s wager with you on an over/under after the next general. Fundamentally I think the way politics in this country works demands the existence of a strong Tory party, and I don’t think much can be assumed from any one election anymore.

Probably under a different name

https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/1774825250640810477?s=46

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