Why are elections always so close?


#1

By looks of things, only 100,000 votes separate Clinton and Trump. 4% separated Brexit vote. Why are most elections so close? How are countries and electorates split so equally?


#2

Because the world doesn’t beat to that same old drum


#3

What might be right for you might not be right for some


#4

Also Brexit was 2% not 4%


#5

In a two-party system, or a yes/no vote, the parties will pitch their tents in the demographic centre-ground, on the assumption that the population as a whole covers a broad spectrum of views with a (generally) pretty even distribution.


#6

all candidates position themselves to get the most votes

if you know you’re gonna get 4% of the vote you wouldn’t bother running

no point having a referendum on something everyone agrees about.


#7

Should add here: Also on the assumption that anyone outside of the centre ground wouldn’t ever change their vote and go for the other party.


#8

Wasn’t it 52% to 48%?


#9

But some people do, like Gary Johnson in this US election?


#10

and the Labour Party in our next election.


#11

Yep


#12

Which of course is the new paradigm…